In the 18 months since 5g was put into commercial use, the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones has grown from less than 1% in 2019 to more than 50% now, and 5g mobile phones are out of the “China speed”. However, this is inseparable from the moderate advance in the construction of 5g base stations, the continuous improvement of the production capacity and technology of chips, panels and other components, the qualitative improvement of mobile phone use experience, and the rich and colorful 5g applications and scenes… China’s 5g mobile phones are about to usher in a large-scale switch period, and it is expected that the penetration rate of 5g mobile phones will reach 90% in 2021.

Infrastructure construction is moderately advanced, and 5g network coverage extends to counties and towns

In accordance with the principle of moderate advance, we adhered to the development model of “promoting use by construction and promoting construction by use”, and achieved important results. At the end of 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would strive to achieve 5g network coverage in all prefecture level cities by the end of 2020. The latest data from the Ministry of industry and information technology shows that in 2020, China will have more than 600000 new 5g base stations and more than 718000 opened 5g base stations, of which more than 330000 5g base stations will be jointly built and shared by Chinatelecom and China Unicom. The 5g network has covered cities above the prefecture level and key counties and cities across the country. 5g base station construction has achieved success and is moderately advanced.

The Ministry of industry and information technology said that it will continue to deepen the deployment of 5g network construction in the future. It plans to build 600000 new 5g base stations in 2021. On the basis of realizing the in-depth coverage of cities above the prefecture level, it will accelerate the extension to counties and towns where conditions permit, guide local governments to increase their support for 5g network construction, further implement 5g station location, power consumption and other relevant policies, and achieve a wider range and more levels of 5g network coverage by promoting 5g virtual private network and other means.

In addition, we will continue to improve the basic industrial capacity, accelerate the R & D and deployment of key technologies such as network slicing, edge computing and 5g enhancement, accelerate the R & D and industrialization of key products and devices such as customized and economical 5g chips and terminals, further strengthen the research on weak points in the industry, and ensure the safety of the supply chain.

The development and industrialization of 5g network coverage, chips and other key devices have provided an environment for accelerating the popularity of 5g mobile phones. 5g chips are evolving towards higher integration, higher process and higher dominant frequency, including Huawei Kirin, MediaTek Tianji, Qualcomm Xiaolong and Samsung exynos series, which have significantly improved their high-speed download and upload experience, high-definition voice calls and power consumption performance. Mobile phone panel a-Si LCD, LTPS LCD, OLED and other panels are in sufficient supply. Panel manufacturers such as BOE, Samsung display, Tianma microelectronics and TCL Huaxing optoelectronics have made continuous breakthroughs in production capacity and technology. According to qunxi consulting data, the global market share of domestic OLED panel manufacturers has exceeded 20%.

According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the scale of 5g users in China has expanded rapidly at the same time, with the growth rate of adding tens of millions of users every month. By the end of 2020, there are nearly 200million 5g mobile terminal connections in China.

Jian Qin, deputy general manager of China Mobile, said that from a macro perspective, the new infrastructure and the new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other have brought greater space and confidence to 5g development and terminal consumption. It is estimated that by 2025, domestic 5g will drive the market scale of nearly 10trillion yuan, including terminal equipment of 1.4 trillion yuan.

With the arrival of large-scale phone changes, the share of 5g mobile phones will exceed 90%

In July, 2019, 5g mobile phones in China accounted for only 0.2% of the total mobile phone shipments. In just over a year, the domestic 5g mobile phone market has rapidly expanded to more than 60%. According to the data of China Academy of communications technology, in 2020, the domestic market shipped 163million 5g mobile phones and 218 new models, accounting for 52.9% and 47.2% respectively. The market share of 5g mobile phones continues to increase. From the monthly data, since last June, 5g mobile phones accounted for more than 60% of the monthly shipments. Subsequently, it has also maintained a high rate. 5g mobile phones have accelerated their penetration into the majority of users.

Chenfengwei, deputy general manager of China Unicom terminal and channel support center / China Unicom Huasheng Communication Co., Ltd., said that 2021 will be the 4g/5g mobile phone scale switching period, the demand for 5g mobile phones will increase, the mobile phone market will steadily improve, and the 5g mobile phone share will reach 90%.

This penetration rate is basically consistent with the prediction of the consulting agency. Cinno research told reporters that since the launch of ZTE axon 10 Pro 5g, the first 5g mobile phone in China, in the third quarter of 2019, the 5g mobile phone generation officially kicked off. 5g mobile phones accounted for 80% of the new phones listed in 2020, of which 83% were 5g new phones in the third quarter, up sharply from 24% in the same period last year.

In the past two years, the price of 5g mobile phones has shown an obvious trend of price reduction, especially falling to the gear of 1500 yuan. The data shows that at present, 5g switching has been basically completed for products with gear above 1500 yuan. This year, we will continue to drive down the cost of 5g mobile phones, achieve full coverage of models above 1000 yuan, and actively promote the coverage of models below 1000 yuan. This year, the 5g penetration rate of 1000 yuan machines will exceed 90%. Jian Qin predicts that in 2021, the sales volume of mobile phones in the whole industry will exceed 350million, including 280million 5g mobile phones, and the sales scale of the mobile phone market will exceed trillion yuan.

Wang Xi, China Research Manager of IDC, told reporters that it is expected that 40% of mobile phone users in China will switch to 5g mobile phones in 2021, of which more than 70% will be in first tier to third tier cities.

From the perspective of brand, the big data of personal promotion shows that in 2020, Huawei will continue to lead the domestic 5g mobile phone market, with a market share of 48.4%; Vivo and oppo ranked second and third respectively, accounting for 16.6% and 11.2% respectively; Glory after independence ranked fourth with a market share of 10.3%. In the fourth quarter, Apple released its first 5g mobile phone, accounting for 5.9% of the market, ranking fifth. Wang Xi said that based on the current promotion speed of 5g market in China and the appeal of Apple brand in China, apple is expected to boost the penetration and popularization of 5g in China from the two aspects of terminal and application.

At present, China is ahead of the global 5g market. There are two core factors. According to IDC research, first, compared with the global market, China’s 5g terminal price strategy is more radical. In the second quarter, the average unit price of 5g mobile phones in the international market was $837 (excluding tax benchmark), while that in the Chinese market was only $464; Second, China covers a wider range of users in the mainstream price segment.

5g speed is continuously released, and the user experience is greatly improved

Over the past year, the technology has been maturing and the quality has been improved. 5g applications and scenarios have become increasingly abundant. More and more people have felt the 5g speed. The performance of 5g mobile phones in data transmission, voice calls, power consumption and endurance has been steadily improved, and the use experience of 5g mobile phones has been increasingly improved.

According to the China mobile intelligent hardware 2020 quality report, the time it takes for social applications to send documents is only 1/5 of the 4G network, the response speed of long video playback is 30% higher than that of 4G, and the upload performance of short video is 50% higher. Compared with 4G, the download experience in the application market has been improved by more than 70%.

According to Chinatelecom terminal insight report 2020, last year, consumers’ perception rate of 5g service has increased from 55.6% in the second half of 2019 to 70.9%. However, there are also some experience pain points, such as short standby time of mobile phones, stuck mobile phones, too high prices and poor texture of materials, which need to be continuously improved by mobile phone manufacturers from the perspective of product design. In addition, consumers also have many expectations for 5g mobile phone technology, such as network speed doubling brought about by 5g+wifi 6-channel convergence, 120W and above priority wireless fast charging, full screen fingerprint recognition, 3D camera, intelligent variable refresh rate screen, etc.

Low latency and high throughput are the characteristics of the 5g era. However, the development of 5g mobile phones has developed from the initial faster stage to the stage of enriching 5g content and applications. Nicole McCormick, senior chief analyst of omdia, said that 2021 will be a year when more mobile AR, VR, 4k/8k video and cloud game applications will emerge, such as 3D ar shopping / e-books or VR cloud games.

In 2020, China Mobile will have more than 350million users of 5g featured applications, including hecaiyun, Migu video, 5g message, super SIM card, Migu video, video RBT, HD cloud games, mobile VR, HD video, etc. China Unicom has continued to cultivate in game, video, XR, cloud and other application fields, creating a new play method of “terminal + terminal + application” combination. In terms of 5g messages, dreamnet Technology launched “Tianhui · 5g message platform” at the end of 2020, taking the lead in integrating 5g messages, video messages and industry messages in China.

The Ministry of industry and information technology said that at present, even if there is no 5g package, 5g network can still be used, and the traffic consumed can be deducted from the existing 4G package. This gives users great discounts and convenience, and the convenient experience brought by 5g mobile phones has spread in all aspects.

In the future, the Ministry of industry and information technology said that it should actively take measures to facilitate the replacement of terminals for users. The 5g tariff package should be optimized and improved based on user needs, and reasonable online contract duration and termination compensation standards should be set. Encourage basic telecom enterprises to promote 5g terminal consumption and accelerate the migration of users to 5g through package upgrade, credit purchase and other measures. Encourage basic telecom enterprises, radio and television media enterprises and content providers to strengthen cooperation and enrich 4k/8k, vr/ar and other new multimedia content sources in education, media, entertainment and other fields.

Editor in charge: Tzh


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