In 2020, a COVID-19 disrupted the pace of production and life. Although some enterprises have resumed work one after another, the situation is still grim, with thousands of newly diagnosed and suspected cases increasing almost every day. Before the turning point, we can not relax at all.
From the historical events in the past, we can see what kind of impact this epidemic will bring.
In the special period, VR gyroscope set up related topics to analyze the impact and opportunities brought by the epidemic in the VR and AR industries.
This paper will be divided into online and offline two plates. First of all, VR gyroscope thinks that the status quo is that the online and offline markets are in a state of ice and fire, but after the epidemic, the offline market will rebound at a high speed. On the other hand, the epidemic accelerates the process of digitization and virtualization, and will change user habits to a certain extent.
Obvious online growth accelerates virtualization process
On the first day of resumption of work (February 3), nailing online office users reached 200 million. Under the instruction of the Ministry of education that “classes will not be suspended”, online education platforms and enterprise office software swarmed into a large number of users. Games and entertainment also ushered in the peak of this spring Festival, and online education is booming.
1. VR device sales and user activity increased, while the stock prices of games and online education rose against the trend
During the Spring Festival every year, both the online and offline entertainment market will usher in a strong growth, but this year, it is obvious that due to the limitation of offline activities, online entertainment will become more active.
According to the data, the highest number of simultaneous online users of steam platform during the Spring Festival reached 18.8 million, a record high.
In terms of sales and user activity of VR devices, VR gyroscope learned from picoceo Zhou Hongwei that the overall data in January showed a significant improvement in the mass consumer market data. The main sales channel of VR equipment for C-terminal is e-commerce. Although most logistics is affected during the Spring Festival, Shunfeng and Jingdong are almost in normal operation.
Domestic C-end users are mainly mobile, including VR all-in-one and VR box products. This kind of product price threshold is low, also does not need the high configuration PC computer, also does not have the request to the space. According to Zhou Hongwei, in January, Pico hardware’s e-commerce sales data and user activity data at the C-end showed a great growth, which increased by more than 30%.
Not only game and VR user activity growth, but also reflected in the capital level. On February 3, the opening day of a stock market and the first day of the opening of a share market, the market howled, and more than 2900 stocks fell to the limit. According to statistics, the thousand stocks fell to the limit, which is the biggest one-day decline since the 1997 Hong Kong financial tsunami. In addition to a small number of stocks, in addition to pharmaceutical related stocks, online education, online games and other concept stocks strengthened.
As of 10:00 a.m. on February 3, the stock prices of perfect world, Youzu network, Sanqi mutual entertainment and gibbet had turned red for a time, among which perfect and Sanqi rose by 5.60% and 3.02% respectively. By February 4, the trend was more obvious. In the case of stocks such as tourism, hotels and restaurants all the way down, game stocks were all red, up even 10%.
Online education concept stocks also showed no signs of weakness. On February 4, 20 stocks, including Chinese online, Gaole shares, Sansheng Education and Jinke culture, rose（ Education section (detailed below)
Due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the limitation of offline activities, online has become the only activity area for users. According to the latest data released by Quest mobile, on January 23 (the day before New Year’s Eve), the total daily usage time of the whole network users was about 5.06 billion hours, which soared to 5.76 billion hours on New Year’s Eve. Until February 3, many enterprises started to work from home, and the data climbed to 6.11 billion hours.
2. VR live has great potential
The field of online live broadcasting also ushered in a strong growth during the Spring Festival. Kwai Chi bullet screen comments bullet screen comments bullet screen comments show that, on January 24th -1 31, the live broadcast platform of fighting fish, tiger teeth, quick hand, Bilibili, YY live broadcast, and over eight days during the Spring Festival, the total barrage volume exceeded 1 billion, and the number of people involved in interactive barrage exceeded 98 million 480 thousand, showing a stepwise increase. In January 31st, the number of barrage bars and the number of bullet screen comments were at peak value, reaching 161 million and 14 million 931 thousand respectively.
Not only traditional live broadcasting, VR live broadcasting is also brilliant in this Spring Festival. In order to cope with the development of New Coronavirus pneumonia, Wuhan has launched two major hospitals, namely, Mount Shen and Raytheon. In order to make it convenient for you to know the hospital construction trends in time, CCTV has carried out 24-hour uninterrupted real-time live broadcast on the construction site. At present, the number of online visitors to the construction live broadcast has exceeded 100 million. At the same time, CCTV, China Telecom, Huawei and insta360 also jointly launched VR live broadcasting. Compared with flat video, VR live broadcasting can gain a broad vision to understand the front-line dynamics.
At the same time, the VR live broadcast is also used for the remote guidance of the hospital and the real-time visit of patients in the isolation area. In the new coronary pneumonia infection ward of the emergency center of the second hospital of Zhejiang University, the medical staff who are responsible for the patients with pneumonia infection have used the 5gvr remote observation and guidance system in the intensive care unit.
With the promotion of 5g, VR live broadcasting is considered to be one of the most potential scenes on the consumer side. Nowadays, almost all large-scale activities adopt VR live broadcasting, such as last year’s 70th anniversary military parade, the two sessions, Spring Festival Gala and so on.
3. “VR cloud tourism” boom
This spring festival may be the most painful for those who originally planned to travel. Affected by the epidemic, VR gyroscope has to cancel its original travel plan and change to VR cloud tourism.
Looking at the circle of friends, I suddenly found that an article in 2016 suddenly exploded, “motherland 500 + tourist attractions VR scenic spots spit blood! The panoramic content prepared for the National Day in those years has reached its peak in this Spring Festival, with more than 100000 + readers and nearly 60000 readers.
After the crazy turn of this article, many official account numbers were also reprinted, most of the reading volume reached 100 thousand +.
The panoramic video in this article is provided by panoramic customers. You can click the name of the scenic spot to view it. You can slide the mobile phone screen to view the 360 degree panoramic scene, or open the VR mode to use the VR box to view it. The texture of the picture is not bad. Each scenic spot contains dozens of parking spots, in which you can move to different parking spots to view. With the voice interpretation of scenic spots, you can really get the feeling of scenic spot tourism to a certain extent.
“Travel all over the world without leaving home” and “you can’t get out of the door, you can have an eye-catching experience”… Nowadays, most domestic traffic stops, scenic spots are closed, and it’s difficult to leave overseas. Many countries have suspended visa processing and entry for Chinese people. Fortunately, VR can still have an eye-catching experience. The comments of netizens are full of helplessness, but VR panorama also has the opportunity to let the public know at this moment.
4. Ministry of Education issued a document to promote Virtual Simulation online education
“No suspension of classes”, this year’s class mode is very different from the usual, the teacher “forced” when the anchor, students have to online classes.
Although we have only tried online classes for a few days, we have made a lot of jokes. It seems that this new form of teaching mode still needs a certain amount of time to adapt. As an important tool of online class, nailing, although the number of active users has soared to more than 100 million, but under the attack of primary school students’ crazy brush poor evaluation, the score has dropped rapidly, and even the students who are not satisfied with the score will be removed from the app store (if the score is too low, they will be removed).
In addition to the reason that some users are stuck due to the high load of the server, the current situation may not be the problem of the tool itself, but it is difficult for everyone to accept this kind of class mode at one time, because it is too different from the actual class mode. From the perspective of educational scene, learning atmosphere is very important, especially for the students who still have poor self-control. In home class, even if the teacher explains the same content, online teaching knowledge points can be synchronized, but the subtle events around can easily distract students’ attention and make it difficult to enter the learning state, This is also the main reason why he believes that immersive VR education must be the future. The virtualization of education is also advancing step by step.
During the Spring Festival, the Ministry of Education issued the “guidance on the organization and management of online teaching in Colleges and universities during the period of epidemic prevention and control”, which mentioned that all high-quality online courses and virtual simulation experiment teaching resources should be opened free of charge to colleges and universities throughout the country. As of February 2, the Ministry of education has organized 22 online course platforms to open more than 24000 online courses free of charge, covering 12 Undergraduate Disciplines and 18 major categories of higher vocational colleges. At the same time, the national virtual simulation experiment teaching project sharing platform is open 24 hours a day, and more than 2000 virtual simulation experiment course resources are provided free of charge.
In recent years, the application of VR and AR in the field of education continues to deepen. It not only formally establishes the virtual reality application technology specialty, increases the occupation of virtual reality practitioners, but also is respected in teaching. The opinions of the Ministry of education on strengthening and improving experimental teaching in primary and secondary schools issued at the end of last year mentioned that primary and secondary schools should innovate experimental teaching methods. All localities and schools should enrich the implementation forms of experimental teaching, promote the organic integration of traditional teaching and modern emerging technology, and effectively enhance the interest and attraction of experimental teaching. Experiments that are dangerous, destructive and harmful to the environment can be presented by augmented reality, virtual reality and other technical means.
Although the potential is huge, but now the user base is too small, it is difficult to be applied as widely as the applications on smart phones at this stage.
Offline short-term impact is serious, the follow-up will rebound
Due to the epidemic situation, online and offline show a scene of ice and fire, but in some scenes, VR and AR also show their unique advantages offline.
1. The factory could not resume work, and the mass production of hardware stopped for a short time
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the State Council announced that the rework time would be extended to February 3. However, in fact, most of the enterprises that can rework after February 3 are Internet enterprises, because they can work online. Then the Ministry of human resources and social security issued a notice, except for the need to ensure the operation of urban and rural areas, the need to prevent and control the epidemic situation, the need of people’s life, and other enterprises involving the important national economy and people’s livelihood, the need to return to work for Hong Kong and Macao, as well as special circumstances, the time for other enterprises to return to work should not be earlier than 24:00 on February 9, so the time for returning to work should be extended to February 10 again.
However, even on February 10, it seems that offline industries, especially factories, are difficult to operate normally. Under the epidemic prevention and control measures, roads and villages are closed, and a large number of foreign employees are unable to return to their posts in time. At the same time, for the sake of safety, if isolation is adopted, it will take a long time, difficult to implement and high cost. At the same time, different provinces and cities return to work time is not unified, the logistics system has not been restored, and suppliers across the country are facing the shortage of workers, materials and parts.
At present, most of the world’s VR and AR hardware production is concentrated in China, and the disrupted production rhythm has a direct impact on hardware sales. Last week, Facebook announced that it would stop accepting new orders from oculus quest. It is expected that the coronavirus will affect the production of VR hardware.
“Oculus quest has sold out in some areas due to strong demand,” a Facebook spokesman said. That is to say, like other companies, coronavirus is expected to have a certain impact on our hardware production. We are taking preventive measures to ensure the safety of our employees, manufacturing partners and customers, and are closely monitoring the situation, and we are trying to resume production as soon as possible. “
Although hardware production has been limited in a short period of time, it is understood that since February 10, some enterprises have been recovering with complete epidemic prevention measures.
2. Ar glasses play a role in the scene of “anti epidemic”
Although VR and Ar are rare in this epidemic, they still highlight their unique value in the front line. Rokid and Liangliang donated ar glasses to fight the epidemic in the front line.
It is understood that since January 28, rokid has successively sent more than 20 sets of AR glasses equipment and corresponding supporting application software to Hangzhou public security West Lake Branch, Hangzhou Expressway Traffic Police Command Center, Huzhou expressway traffic police command center and Quzhou expressway traffic police command center. At each epidemic prevention inspection station, the duty personnel wear rokid glass, which can quickly identify the information of passing vehicles and personnel at a distance of one meter, and control the flow of high-risk personnel.
Similarly, Liangliang vision has donated ar glasses and telemedicine system to Wuhan Central Hospital, Zhengzhou orthopedic hospital, Zhengzhou second people’s Hospital and other hospitals in China to solve telemedicine problems.
Through ar glasses, we can not only realize the first visual angle remote assistance and live broadcast to understand the scene dynamics, but also carry out face recognition, vehicle recognition and so on through sensors. Because of the head wearing shape, the first visual angle, and the recognition distance is long enough (up to 4-5 meters), we can effectively avoid the cross infection caused by direct contact.
In addition to the above two, liangfengtai has also launched a new ar glasses solution with temperature measurement function, which is applied in Shanghai Hongkou 1929 park. After the staff wear ar glasses, the real-time temperature of the passing staff will be displayed in front of the field of vision. If it exceeds 37.3 degrees, the alarm will be triggered directly. Different from the forehead temperature gun, this set of products does not need close contact, and the AR Glasses 3 meters away can directly “scan” and quickly measure the temperature, so as to reduce the risk of cross infection caused by temperature measurement contact and personnel blockage. In addition, according to the epidemic situation, ruiyue Nibiru has also launched a comprehensive solution for multi person remote evaluation of the project – xrviewer remote rendering, multi person cooperation, to realize the remote evaluation of the project.
At present, the full potential of AR glasses in the first line has not been tapped. On the one hand, due to the high cost, on the other hand, the role of AR glasses has not been widely recognized.
3. VR offline entertainment “hit hard”, after the epidemic will usher in a rebound
Offline entertainment has to be said to be a “heavy hit area”. Now, except for some shops that protect people’s lives, almost all of them are closed.
According to the latest statement of academician Zhong Nanshan, the turning point of the epidemic situation that everyone is waiting for is that February will usher in a peak, which is expected to end in April, but there are still many uncertain factors. If the epidemic ends in April, it will be delayed for as long as a quarter. Originally, the Spring Festival was able to usher in the peak passenger flow, but I never thought that even business could not be carried out normally. For the shopkeeper, in the waiting months, the two inevitable costs of labor and rent are in a state of continuous “burning money”.
VR offline entertainment is composed of single point (small experience store), VR cinema, E-sports (large space), comprehensive Paradise (multi experience large) and other forms. From the development of VR offline entertainment market, compared with the chaotic state before, the branding and scale effect is very obvious in 2019, and many brands have carried out rapid expansion.
After the outbreak of VR offline market in 2016 and the calm and relatively depressed period in 2017, VR offline market began to recover in 2018. However, the core problem of VR offline market, in addition to the content, is that it is still difficult to form a healthy business model with flat efficiency ratio.
Whether it’s VR cinema, PVP based E-sports hall, or large-scale comprehensive park, although they represent three different formats, the common point is that they are all solving the problem of floor efficiency.
First of all, VR cinema, in the offline entertainment format, the traditional viewing platform efficiency is very high, so the new entertainment mode formed by adding VR technology also continues the advantages of high platform efficiency of cinema. For example, there are more than 60 VR offline experience stores in digital Kingdom space. In the first year of operation, they have received more than 1 million Experiencers, with revenue of more than 10 million.
However, the core problem is that the Cinema mode can only display viewing content, which is currently faced with two major problems: low user stickiness, just like a movie, few people go to the cinema to see the same movie many times; This means that the Cinema mode needs a higher content update speed, even like movies, 2-3 movies are updated every week. However, there is a shortage of high-quality VR film and television content in the market. It is difficult to make this mode circulate healthily in the short term, but the future potential is promising.
The second is the main PVP multiplayer competition experience hall. 100 square meters can accommodate 6 people to fight at the same time, which also effectively solves the problem of turf efficiency. Compared with the Cinema mode, the sports hall mode is more viscous and interactive, and the content update frequency is not so high. But the problem is that the mode is relatively single, and the dependence on the content is very high. It can even be said that the quality of the content directly determines the stickiness and vitality of the content; At the same time, in addition to the content itself, the current form is not a “amazing” business, with a low ceiling.
The third is the comprehensive format of large-scale park, which also solves the problem of flat efficiency. Relying on the comprehensive format, such as catering, board games and other businesses, it can generate two or three times of consumption and balance the flat efficiency of VR park. The advantage of large-scale comprehensive park is that it solves the offline demand of scene consumption, including users’ offline social interaction and online sharing, etc., and the brand advantage is easy to be embodied in a centralized way. At the same time, what is quite different from the above two forms is that the cinema form and the PVP small module mode are more dependent on the surrounding formats, However, due to the large size of the park, it can promote the development of the surrounding formats.
But there are also problems in large-scale parks. First of all, the threshold is high. If we want to build a large-scale comprehensive park, we need a huge system, including technical team, content team, operation team, especially the construction of the whole set of operation system. It takes a long time to accumulate and trial and error step by step to be mature and perfect. It is understood that soreal, which is located in Wangfujing, Beijing, has been in operation for four years before it began to expand. The main customers of the 5000 square meter park are enterprise group building, birthday party and tourists.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the fault of VR offline experience stores will be further aggravated in 2020. In addition to rent, personnel costs and other objective factors, after the epidemic, consumers’ requirements for offline experience stores will also be significantly improved, especially in terms of personal hygiene. As VR devices directly contact human faces, although many people don’t care now, they will be worried after the epidemic. By then, the advantages of big brand experience hall with more perfect operation and service will be more obvious.
“At this stage, compared with online, offline potential VR players and players holding VR devices are 30:1, and the market still has great potential.” Cao Anjie, CEO of Netease film core, once mentioned it.
Now, due to the offline weakness of the epidemic, the online recovery seems to be passive and has no choice. Once the epidemic is over, there will be an explosive warming off the line, just like a spring. The longer the pressure, the higher the spring.
Due to the limitation of offline activities and the increase of online demand, the epidemic is a huge challenge for many companies, even related to their life and death.
But crisis and opportunity coexist. In the view of the government, the epidemic not only promotes the digital process, but also accelerates the speed of virtualization. What enterprises should think about is how to respond flexibly and turn crisis into opportunity.
Editor in charge: CC