In a highly volatile encryption asset market, short-term sharp rise and fall will make people doubt life. The knot can be solved from two aspects: first, switch to the macro perspective. The more than ten years of bitcoin can give people a broader vision and a longer-term thinking mode; The second is to find the basic logic of the value of bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Is it the direction of currency evolution? Is it the direction of financial evolution? Is it a more advanced technology? Everyone has different answers to these questions. Once considered clearly, many problems will be solved easily.

Imagine if someone told you that there is a technology that can revolutionize finance and governance. In a $100 trillion market, it is the leading competitor and has a huge first mover advantage. Thousands of developers are using this technology, and many billionaires have made venture capital to give it greater value, practicability and positive attention. Some countries are even using this technology to implement their monetary policy.

The adoption of this technology is still not good for the overall population growth of 5% for many years. Facebook, Microsoft, Ernst & young, IBM, Walmart, JP Morgan and many other companies have also used this technology to develop new products and services for their customers.

You can buy a minority stake in this technology in exchange for some tokens that can be traded with anyone anytime, anywhere. Well, I forgot to say that the price of this token has risen for five years in the past six years. Since its birth, its value has increased by more than 1000000%. Its price has also doubled in the past 12 months.

How do you react after listening to the introduction?

no thank you. It’s too risky. It will return to zero.

This is bitcoin today.

When you look back and see that the price fell from 14000 to $6500 last year, it makes people more reasonable to doubt it.

It’s down a lot from $14000. For more than half a year, the price has been difficult to reach the previous height, and even collapsed before reaching $10000.

Far from reaching the goal.

By the time this article was published, the price of bitcoin had fallen to $8500. Now, some analysts predict that it will fall to a lower level. Some people think it will be around $7900, while others think the price will be as low as $6500 or even lower. (blue fox notes: now it’s about $7900)

If we fall to $7900, or even lower $6500, the price chart of bitcoin is as follows:

Trend analysis of bitcoin price from 2010 to 2020

Trend of bitcoin price from 2010 to 2020

Does this look like a bad asset in a bear market?

If we zoom in to 15 months after the end of the last bear market

Suppose we do fall to $7900. The chart is as follows: (blue fox note: the price was about 8500 two days ago, and we have indeed fallen to $7900 now)

Trend analysis of bitcoin price from 2010 to 2020

Bitcoin price since December 2018

Even if the price of bitcoin falls to $7900, the trend is clear. Prices are on the rise.

Of course not in a straight line. When anyone looks at this picture, isn’t it a bull market?

However, people don’t feel like a bull market at all

But bull markets always open like this. Do you remember when the US stock market rose 40% in a year? I don’t remember.

This is normal. It happened in 2009, at the end of the great depression.

At that time, few people realized that this would start an 11 year bull market. Expert analysis predicts further collapse.

Sometimes it takes time for good news to disappear, especially what is happening in traditional markets. It seems that everything has collapsed.

Contrary to news reports, bitcoin prices have nothing to do with the stock market or any other asset type. We have a lot of data to prove this. However, prices may fluctuate for a week or two, but this short-term trend will disintegrate over time.

It’s not a call to “fly to heaven”!

To be sure, I’m not saying we’re going to enter a bull market in the bitcoin market. It is simply pointed out that the price of bitcoin is still in the rising channel.

As I said before, we may fall to $5400, but we are still in a bull market.

But when you see the price falling from $14000 to $6500 and now falling again from $10500, it’s not surprising that people still fear.

People still remember the big crash in 2018. These smaller, newer declines will only increase fear.

Are we now entering another bitcoin bear market?

of course. However, unless there is sufficient evidence, it should not be easily identified as a bear market.

Volatility does not mean a bleak outlook

If you want to have that million dollar bitcoin that everyone dreams of, then you must bear its massive collapse along the way.

Some collapses are setbacks, others lead to actual bear markets. We have suffered setbacks, but that does not mean that the bull market is over.

Responsible editor; zl

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *