Under the shadow of the epidemic, the capital market continued to rise. The rise of the market has driven the share prices of more listed companies to “float red” all the way. For example, Qianzhao photoelectric has successfully “three connected boards”. Not only that, the LED industry is the birth of three 100 billion market value listed companies, envy others.

Among these three enterprises, San’an optoelectronics has already become the leading enterprise of domestic LED chips. Not only that, its vision is focused on higher-order compound integrated circuit chips; China micro semiconductor is an excellent manufacturer of semiconductor equipment in China, and its MOCVD equipment breaks the monopoly pattern of international manufacturers; Although bull group is a “upstart” in the capital market, it has long been a “socket brother” in China.

San’an optoelectronics: LED chip leader targeting compound semiconductor

San’an optoelectronics was founded in November 2000 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2008. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of panchromatic ultra-high brightness LED epitaxial chips, chips, III-V compound semiconductor materials, microwave communication integrated circuits and power devices, optical communication components, etc. the product performance indicators rank at the international advanced level.

In the industrial chain, according to the characteristics of the market, San’an optoelectronics produces LED chips in different fields and different bands. With a complete range of products covering a wide range of application fields, it provides downstream customers with more choices and products with higher cost performance, which can meet the needs of customers at different levels.

However, when the LED chip market fell, the net profit of San’an optoelectronics also halved. On January 11, the performance forecast of San’an Optoelectronics in 2019 showed that the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2019, a decrease of 1.274 billion yuan to about 1.557 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 45% to 55%; The net profit after deducting non-profit decreased by about 1.349 billion yuan to 1.574 billion yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 60% to 70%.

San’an optoelectronics explained that the sharp decline in performance was mainly due to two reasons: first, the price of the LED industry decreased significantly in the first three quarters of 2019, and the product price gradually stabilized in the fourth quarter. During the reporting period, the decline of the company’s cost was lower than that of the product price, resulting in the decline of gross profit margin; Second, the sales scale of the company’s integrated circuit business in the first three quarters was small, and the volume was increased only in the fourth quarter. The loss reduction range was limited, and the integrated circuit business continued to suffer losses throughout the year.

However, the weak performance did not prevent its share price from soaring. As of February 18, the share price of San’an optoelectronics was 26.06 yuan, with a market value of 106.2 billion yuan. The capital market’s “singing” of San’an optoelectronics is more reflected in its expectations for its development prospects. Southwest Securities said in a research report that the company’s led business is expected to hit the bottom, while San’an integration is expected to receive dividends from the improvement of the self-sufficiency rate of RF front-end devices, and the integrated circuit business is expected to achieve explosive growth in 2020.

Lin Kechuang, general manager of San’an optoelectronics, also said, “if LED chips are the main supporting force for the development of San’an at present, compound semiconductor integrated circuit chips will bring driving force for the long-term development of San’an optoelectronics.”

It can be said that at the moment when the LED chip business is sluggish, compound semiconductor integrated circuits have become an important support for the market value of San’an optoelectronics.

Medium micro semiconductor: the promoter of the localization of semiconductor equipment

China’s semiconductor equipment manufacturer Zhongwei semiconductor’s share price has soared all the way recently. As of the closing on February 18, the company’s share price reached 21 billion yuan, with a market value of 112.3 billion yuan.

China micro semiconductor, which is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of semiconductor equipment, officially landed on the science and Innovation Board on July 22, 2019, becoming one of the first 25 enterprises listed and traded on the science and innovation board, with the stock code of 688012 SH, the issue price is 29.01 yuan. In less than half a year, its share price “Crazy” increased six times, which is amazing.

As one of the few listed companies in LED related industries with a market value of more than 100 billion, can China micro semiconductor support a market value of 100 billion? Some analysts from investment institutions said frankly that there is a serious capital foam in it, and most of the investors behind it are hyping the concept of semiconductors.

The person believes that if evaluated according to the real data of the third quarterly report of China micro semiconductor in 2019, combined with the inherent attributes of the science and innovation board, its reasonable market value should be about 40 billion. Data show that in the first three quarters of 2019, the revenue of China micro semiconductor was 1.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 135 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 399.14%.

In addition, according to the 2019 performance forecast of China micro semiconductor, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in 2019, ranging from 176 million yuan to 192 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.41% to 46.72%.

Although the company’s performance shows an upward growth trend, from a rational point of view, such net profit data is really difficult to match its market value of 100 billion. However, as the main promoter of the localization of semiconductor equipment, Zhongwei semiconductor is highly expected by domestic semiconductor practitioners.

As we all know, the level of etching machine is one of the highest in the chip manufacturing process. However, the field of semiconductor equipment has been monopolized by international manufacturers before, and the emergence of Zhongwei is expected to reverse this situation.

In the development process of more than ten years, China micro semiconductor has invested billions of yuan in R & D funds, and now it has finally made little achievements. Its self-developed 5nm plasma etching machine has officially passed the verification of TSMC and will be used in the world’s first 5nm process production line. This is also the first time that domestic semiconductor manufacturers have participated in the world’s most advanced chip R & D and production.

In 2011, China micro semiconductor began to involve MOCVD equipment, and developed the first MOCVD within one year. With the high cost performance of its equipment, it was gradually accepted by the market in the following years. In 2018, its MOCVD equipment could sell more than 100 cavities a year, breaking the monopoly pattern of vesco and aisqiang. At present, from the perspective of main business income, the proportion of MOCVD business of medium and micro semiconductor is higher than that of etching machine.

From this point of view, its 100 billion market value is not based on the company’s current performance level, but more on the expectation of the company’s future performance.

Bull: the 100 billion market value myth of “socket brother”

The total market value of bull’s lighting products broke the 100 billion limit on the 1st of the domestic lighting group’s market value. It is worth mentioning that the bull group only completed the bell ringing listing on February 6, then raised the limit for several consecutive days, and exceeded the market value of 100 billion in only ten days.

Bull group started with converters, relying on product reputation and deep sinking channel terminals, its business expanded from sockets to wall switches, led basic lighting, digital accessories and other fields. In 2018, the market share of converters and wall switches and sockets in tmall was the industry leader, while the emerging business led lighting and digital accessories were still in a large-scale stage.

LED lighting is a business that bull group only started to expand in 2014, and launched a variety of LED lighting products with anti stroboscopic, anti blue light and other functions. The product categories include bulb, downlight, lamp belt, lamp sticker, ceiling lamp and other lighting products. The sales revenue also achieved rapid growth, with a sales revenue of 741 million yuan in 2018 and a compound growth rate of 116.98% from 2016 to 2018. However, in front of old lighting manufacturers such as OPP lighting, Rex lighting, sunshine lighting and Sanxiong Aurora, the bull is still a little immature.

Cai Yingfeng, vice president of the group, once said that “we draw a circle according to our ability range, first focus on the development of the field in the circle, and after developing in this circle, we can expand the circle in combination with our own ability and market demand.”

In recent years, the performance of bull group has continued to grow. According to its prospectus data, from 2016 to 2018, the revenue of bull group was 5.366 billion yuan, 7.24 billion yuan and 9.065 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company was 1.4 billion yuan, 1.285 billion yuan and 1.677 billion yuan respectively. The 2019 performance forecast shows that in 2019, bull Group expects a revenue of 9.679 billion-10.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.77% – 18.01%, and the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is 2.301 billion-2.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.19% – 51.64%.

For the bull group’s 100 billion market value, some people in the capital market believe that they “look bad”. There is a view in the market that the average profit of bull group from 2016 to 2018 is 1.45 billion, and 1.45 billion corresponds to the market value of 100 billion, which is obviously worthless. Even if calculated according to the net profit of 2 billion in 2019, the maximum market value is 50-60 billion!

As of the closing on February 18, bull group has a market value of 110.1 billion and a P / E ratio of about 45 times. Excessive valuation will overdraft the performance in the next few years. In any case, whether bull group can achieve sustained growth in performance in the future also depends on whether it can find a stable new business growth point.

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