The first year of 5g scale expansion is also a year when the world has experienced great changes that have not been seen in a century.
Because novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is spreading globally and technology industry is facing potential risks such as decoupling technology, although evolution to 5G represent the general trend of technology development in the intelligent terminal industry in 2020, there are still many uncertainties in the market structure and future technological innovation.
Look at the market: the capacity is declining, and manufacturers are struggling to move forward
Judging from the shipments of the global smartphone market and the market performance of major manufacturers, the smartphone market in 2020 has experienced too many “black swan” events.
Due to the negative impact of the epidemic, the global smartphone market shipments continued to decline in 2020. According to the data released by IDC, a market research institution, in the first quarter of 2020, the global smartphone shipment decreased by 11.7% year-on-year and 16.0% year-on-year in the second quarter. Q1 and Q2 hit the largest year-on-year decline in history; In the third quarter, it was still in decline, down 1.3% year-on-year. It is expected that the overall sales volume of the global smartphone market will decline by 2.3% in 2020.
From the performance of major mobile phone manufacturers, the tracking report of the global smartphone market in the third quarter of 2020 released by canalys, a market research institution, shows that the top five manufacturers in the global smartphone market in the third quarter of 2020 are Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, apple and vivo.
Samsung Q3 shipped 80.2 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 2% and a market share of 23%, ranking first.
Huawei Q3 shipped 51.7 million units, down 23% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.9%, ranking second.
Xiaomi Q3 shipped 47.1 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 45% and a market share of 13.5%, ranking third for the first time.
Apple Q3 shipped 43.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with a market share of 12.4%, ranking fourth.
Vivoq3 shipped 31.8 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 6% and a market share of 9.1, ranking fifth.
It can be seen from the data that not only the overall market capacity was negatively affected by the epidemic, but also individual manufacturers suffered the “black swan” incident. For example, under the continuous pressure of the United States, the supply of chips was cut off. Huawei, which had hoped to counter attack Samsung throughout the year, saw a sharp decline in shipments that had not been seen in many years. At a difficult time when the industrial technology elements are not sustainable and the consumer business is under great pressure, Huawei reluctantly decided to sell the glory business assets of its Internet mobile phone brand as a whole. Huawei does not hold any shares in the glory after delivery, nor participate in operation, management and decision-making.
Look at the trend: 5g mobile phones are in power, and the price continues to decline
In the first year of 5g scale expansion expected by the whole people, under the impact of the epidemic sweeping the world, the whole smartphone industry is facing unprecedented challenges and many uncertainties.
Although the road ahead of the industry is full of bumps, some positive trends still give people hope. For example, in the first year of 5g scale expansion, smart phones are still the most widely used terminal form of 5g at this stage. In 2020, almost all the new products released by the world’s leading mobile phone manufacturers are 5g mobile phones, and the price range will expand from high-end models to mid-range and even thousand yuan models.
For example, in 2020, Huawei launched P40 series and mate40 series high-end 5g mobile phones; Apple also released high-end 5g products such as iphone12 and iphone12pro; Samsung has released high-end 5g mobile phones such as Galaxy note20 and galaxy zfold2; Xiaomi released Xiaomi 10 at the beginning of the year and Xiaolong 888 launched Xiaomi 11 and other high-end flagship at the end of the year; Oppo released reno5pro +, vivo, X60 series and other high-end 5g mobile phones.
In addition to listing 5g mobile phones in the same high-end flagship products, major mobile phone manufacturers have also introduced 5g products in the middle end gear or even close to the 1000 yuan gear. For example, Xiaomi’s redminote9pro even calls the good 100 million pixel 5g mobile phone to 1599 yuan. In 2020, the top 5 mobile phone manufacturers have launched a number of 5g mobile phones with a price of more than 1000 yuan.
In 2020, 5g mobile phone will also become the main model in the whole mobile phone market. Taking the Chinese market as an example, according to the data released by the China Academy of information technology, in November 2020, the shipment of 5g mobile phones in the Chinese market was 2013.6 million, accounting for 68.1% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period; There were 16 new models on the market, accounting for 53.3% of the number of new mobile phone models on the market in the same period. From January to November this year, the domestic market shipped 144 million 5g mobile phones and 199 new models, accounting for 51.4% and 47.7% respectively.
Look to the future: in addition to mobile phones, 5g scale expansion needs more terminal forms
In the first year of 5g scale expansion, in addition to smart phones, 5g terminals are also expanding from mobile phones to more fields such as CPE, tablet and industry customized terminals. The expansion and innovation of 5g terminal form can be expected in the future.
At the same time, 5g terminals with richer forms also need the cooperation of all parties in the industrial chain if they want to reach more consumers and even thousands of industries.
For example, 5g module is the key link to enrich 5g terminals in the industry. However, the real 5g module, 5g industrial gateway and 5gtob terminals are still limited. At present, a 5g module costs about 1000 yuan. When the 5g module is reduced to 300 yuan or 400 yuan, more terminal manufacturers should be willing to launch more types of 5g terminals.
To sum up, in the first year of extraordinary 5g scale expansion, as the main form of 5g terminal, 5g mobile phone has become the choice of more and more users and the new main force of smart phone market in special period; If 5g wants to expand to a larger scale, we need more innovation on the terminal side.
Responsible editor: GT