The first year of the scale expansion of 5G is also a year in which the world has experienced major changes unseen in a century.

Due to the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the potential risks of technology decoupling in the technology industry, although the evolution to 5G in 2020 has become the general trend of technology development in the smart terminal industry, there are still many uncertainties in the market structure and future technological innovation.

Look at the market: capacity declines, manufacturers struggle to move forward

Judging from the shipments of the global smartphone market and the market performance of major manufacturers, the smartphone market in 2020 has experienced too many "black swan" events.

Affected by the negative impact of the epidemic, the global smartphone market shipments continued to decline in 2020. According to data released by market research agency IDC, global smartphone shipments fell by 11.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and 16.0% in the second quarter. It is still in a state of decline, down 1.3% year-on-year, and it is expected that the overall sales of the global smartphone market will decline by 2.3% in 2020.

Judging from the performance of major mobile phone manufacturers, the data of the global smartphone market tracking report for the third quarter of 2020 released by market research firm Canalys shows that the top five manufacturers in the global smartphone market in the third quarter of 2020 are: Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, Apple, vivo.

Samsung Q3 shipped 80.2 million units, an increase of 2% year-on-year, with a market share of 23%, ranking first.

Huawei Q3 shipped 51.7 million units, down 23% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.9%, ranking second.

Xiaomi Q3 shipped 47.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a market share of 13.5%, ranking third for the first time.

Apple shipped 43.2 million units in Q3, down 1% year-on-year, with a market share of 12.4%, ranking fourth.

vivo Q3 shipped 31.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a market share of 9.1, ranking fifth.

It can be seen from the data that not only the overall market capacity has been negatively affected by the epidemic, but individual manufacturers have also encountered "black swan" events. For example, due to the continuous pressure from the United States, the supply of chips has been cut off. Huawei, which had hoped to counterattack Samsung throughout the year, has experienced a sharp decline in shipments that have not been seen for many years. At a difficult time when the industrial technology elements were unsustainably available and the consumer business was under enormous pressure, Huawei reluctantly decided to sell the assets of its Internet mobile phone brand Glory business as a whole.

Look at the trend: 5G mobile phones are in power, and prices continue to drop

In the first year of 5G scale expansion expected by the whole people, under the impact of the epidemic sweeping the world, the entire smartphone industry is facing unprecedented challenges and many uncertainties.

Although the road ahead for the industry is full of bumps, some positive trends still give people hope. For example, in the first year of 5G scale expansion, smartphones are still the most widely used terminal form of 5G at this stage. In 2020, the new products released by the world's leading mobile phone manufacturers are almost all 5G mobile phones, and the price range has expanded from high-end models to mid-range and even thousand-yuan phones.

For example, in the past 2020, Huawei launched the P40 series and Mate40 series of high-end 5G mobile phones; Apple also released high-end 5G products such as the iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro; Samsung released high-end 5G mobile phones such as the Galaxy Note20 and Galaxy Z Fold2; At the beginning of the year, the Xiaomi Mi 10 was released, and at the end of the year, the Snapdragon 888 was the first to release high-end flagships such as the Mi 11; OPPO released the Reno5 Pro+, and vivo released high-end 5G mobile phones such as the X60 series.

In addition to the 5G mobile phones that are all listed in the high-end flagship products, major mobile phone manufacturers are also introducing 5G products in the mid-end gear or even approaching the thousand-yuan gear. For example, Xiaomi's Redmi Note 9 Pro even sells a well-equipped 100-megapixel 5G mobile phone to 1,599 yuan. In 2020, TOP5 mobile phone manufacturers have launched a variety of 5G mobile phones priced in the early thousand.

In 2020, 5G mobile phones will also become the main models in the entire mobile phone market. Taking the Chinese market as an example, data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications shows that in November 2020, 5G mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market were 20.136 million units, accounting for 68.1% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period; 16 new models were launched, accounting for the same period of mobile phone shipments. 53.3% of the new models listed. From January to November this year, the cumulative shipment of 5G mobile phones in the domestic market was 144 million units, and a total of 199 new models were launched, accounting for 51.4% and 47.7% respectively.

Looking to the future: In addition to mobile phones, 5G scale expansion requires more terminal forms

In the first year of 5G scale expansion, in addition to smartphones, 5G terminals are also expanding from mobile phones to more fields such as CPE, tablets, and industry customized terminals. The expansion and innovation of 5G terminal forms in the future can be expected.

At the same time, if 5G terminals with richer forms want to go to more consumers and even thousands of industries, they also need the cooperation of all parties in the industry chain.

For example, 5G modules are a key link in enriching 5G terminals in the industry. However, the current real 5G modules, 5G industrial gateways, and 5GtoB terminals are still relatively limited. At present, a 5G module costs about a thousand yuan. When the 5G module drops to three or four hundred yuan, there should be more terminal manufacturers willing to Launch more types of 5G terminals.

To sum up, in the first year of extraordinary 5G scale expansion, as the main form of 5G terminals, 5G mobile phones have become the choice of more and more users, and have become the new main force in the smartphone market in special times; and if 5G wants to expand to On a larger scale, we also need more innovation on the terminal side.

Responsible editor: gt

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