Although the proportion of fixed communication business revenue has been increasing, traffic revenue is still the operator's largest source of income. Therefore, under the trend that the unit price of traffic continues to decrease, doing a good job in traffic management is a priority issue for operators at all levels. The revenue trend in 2020 shows that the operator's new traffic policy has been fully implemented. Today, we try to use the method of peeling onions to lead everyone to understand the operator's new traffic policy.
1. The user’s traffic value contribution is getting higher and higher
Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that in the first quarter, the three basic telecommunications companies completed mobile data and Internet business revenue of 158.4 billion yuan, while the cumulative mobile Internet traffic reached 35.7 billion GB in the same period, and the DOU of users at the end of the third quarter was about 9.5 GB/GB. moon. Based on this, we can conclude that the average unit of traffic in the first quarter is about 4.44 yuan/GB, and the monthly average traffic cost of users is about 42.15 yuan.
According to the same method as above, we can calculate that at the end of June and the end of November, the monthly average traffic expenses of users are about 43.35 yuan and 44.31 yuan respectively. From 42.15 yuan at the end of March to 43.35 yuan at the end of June, and then to 44.31 yuan at the end of November, although the overall change is not large, this curve shows an increasing trend after all.
If we continue to analyze in depth, we will also find that the main reason for the increase in user traffic consumption is the increase in business usage, rather than the increase in the unit price of traffic. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the average unit price of traffic in the first three months of this year is about 4.44 yuan/GB, the average unit price of traffic in the first six months is about 4.26 yuan/GB, and the average unit price of traffic in the first 11 months is about 3.8 yuan/GB.
The unit price of traffic showed an obvious downward curve, and the DOU of users showed a clear growth trend during the same period. Although the user's traffic consumption expenditure has increased, this increase is caused by the increase in usage. This is not only the result of operators' small profits but quick turnover to encourage users to use traffic boldly, but also the informatization demand of economic and social development.
2. Where do operators’ traffic revenue growth come from?
Compared with the traffic growth rate of more than 70% in 2019, the traffic growth rate of operators in 2020 has been reduced to a maximum of only 44.2%, and the annual traffic growth rate will most likely not exceed 40%. However, even so, traffic revenue can still show year-on-year growth, and this growth has also shown a clear and continuous upward trend. What is the reason for this?
Under the premise that the total number of mobile phone users does not change much, only the more people who use traffic and the more traffic they use, the faster the operator's traffic revenue can grow. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of November, the three basic telecommunications companies had developed 1.345 billion mobile Internet users, and the penetration rate of mobile phone users was 84.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the end of the previous year.
The scale of mobile Internet users has increased by nearly 30 million from the end of last year, which is not a big deal. The scale of 30 million households is equivalent to the scale of 4G users in Beijing or Shanghai. In a sense, the 30 million additional mobile Internet users not only realized the leap from the era of feature phones to the era of smart phones, but also contributed a lot of revenue to operators.
3. Where do the new mobile Internet users come from?
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of November, the three basic telecommunications companies had developed 1.345 billion mobile Internet users, and the penetration rate of mobile phone users was 84.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the end of the previous year. So far, the penetration rate of mobile Internet users has reached a record high again after reaching a new high in October.
If the time is further extended, everyone will clearly see that the penetration rate of mobile Internet users has hovered between 81% and 83% for a long time, and the probability of breaking through 83% every month is not very high. Although the three major operators developed a large number of mobile phone users during this period, and most of them belonged to the so-called 4G users, the fact is that these newly developed users are either water or backup cards.
In 2020, while the overall number of mobile phone users maintains a slight growth, the penetration rate of mobile Internet users has increased significantly. This is due to the factors that new Internet users directly become mobile Internet users, and after 2G is withdrawn from the network, a large number of 2G Internet users The factor that users are forced to migrate to 4G users, and from 2G to 4G, these users are real users, and this is the root cause.
This conclusion can be extrapolated from the growth of mobile phone users. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of November, the total number of mobile phone users of the three basic telecommunications companies reached 1.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of less than 0.1%, and the increase was less than 11 million. 40 million households. This once again confirms that the development of real users has real value.
4. The driving effect of fixed-line broadband is gradually enlarged
The operator's experience in broadband user development shows that whether it is extending from mobile users to broadband users or from broadband users to mobile users, the goal of user development can be achieved through fixed-mobile integration. Since then, in the process of expanding broadband network to villages and towns, the development of smart phone users through broadband is an inevitable choice to push the boat forward.
The reason why China Telecom can achieve a large-scale growth of mobile phone users in 2020 is that the contribution of broadband is very obvious. As of the end of November, China Telecom had 158 million fixed-line household users. According to the 1:3 distribution of households and population, the number of China Telecom's mobile phone users should be 474 million, but now there are only 350 million. There is still a lot of room left.
In addition, through the in-depth popularization of fixed-line broadband in villages and towns, the penetration rate of smartphones will be further expanded. Even if these users are temporarily not suitable for 4G Internet access, as long as it can be extended to users, as long as it can help cultivate users' Internet habits, then these users will It is only a matter of time before the possibility of converting to mobile Internet users. These real potential Internet users have huge business value.
5. What exactly is the operator's new traffic management policy?
Through the layer-by-layer analysis of peeling the onion above, we found the real reasons supporting the growth of traffic revenue. The first is user growth and only real user growth is valuable. The second is the continuous increase in the penetration rate of mobile Internet access and only user growth without penetration rate improvement has no value. Finally, operators encourage users to consume traffic with small profits but quick turnover. . Through comprehensive measures, operators have finally achieved the coveted revenue growth supported by small profits but quick turnover.
Maybe many colleagues in the operator market do not agree with the new traffic management policy we have concluded. After all, these gameplays are old routines and nothing new. In fact, the reason why we call the policies after the comprehensive application of these old routines is the New Deal is essentially because of the current comprehensive application of operators, rather than the lack of system integration and decentralized applications in the past.
After experiencing the pain of negative revenue growth in 2019, operators finally began to integrate various scattered operations, and achieved the effect of 1+1>2 through system integration. In the past, the gameplay of relying on new additions to drive revenue growth is no longer suitable for traffic operations in the post-4G era. So far, the era of operators relying solely on user growth to achieve revenue growth has passed.
Although 5G has already entered the market, the main revenue of operators is still 4G, and it is difficult to completely reverse this trend for a long time. Under the circumstance that 5G is difficult to be a big responsibility, it is still the main task of operators to operate 4G steadfastly. Close to the past operation, the facts have proved that it has completely failed to meet the current development needs. According to the changing situation, the implementation of new business strategies will be the main direction of the operators in the future.
Responsible editor: gt