China’s new energy vehicle production and sales have increased from the initial tens of thousands to more than one million. According to the data released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2020, China’s automobile sales will reach 25.311 million, of which 1.367 million are new energy vehicles, accounting for 5.4% of the total sales, and 4.68% in 2019“ 5% is recognized as the critical point for new energy vehicles to enter the growth period from the introduction period. ” At the 2021 annual meeting of Guanghua Automobile Industry Association of Peking University, Cui Yan, chief analyst of auto industry of Huaxi Securities, pointed out that in 2020, China’s new energy vehicles will officially cross the import period, enter the growth period, and achieve qualitative change.
The growth period presents three significant characteristics
In 2020, the novel coronavirus pneumonia industry in China was affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the trend of low and high level was seen. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China was 352000, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%. In July, the growth rate changed from negative to positive, and the annual sales volume was 1367000, an increase of 10.9%. Cui Yan analyzed and pointed out: “in 2019, the sales volume of China’s new energy vehicles under 2B mode accounted for 60% – 70% of the total, that is, group users such as express and online car Hailing absorbed most of the sales volume. In 2020, 2C sales account for the majority, that is, individual users purchase more than group customers, which is a significant change. It also shows that in the field of new energy vehicles, the market-oriented feature is more and more obvious, and the new energy vehicle industry is changing from policy driven to supply driven“ 2020 is the first year of supply driven. ” Cui Yan said that this can also be felt from the changes in the concerns of professionals“ In the past, securities analysts in the automotive industry discussed more about policies in the wechat circle of friends. In 2020, we will pay more attention to new energy models. “
In Cui Yan’s view, another feature in the field of new energy vehicles is the reshaping of brand power. In the traditional automobile era, the competitiveness of automobile enterprises is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the cycle of automobile enterprises to launch new cars; Second, the popularity of new models in the market, that is, the monthly sales volume; Third, the brand influence of enterprises. These three aspects determine the competitiveness of automobile enterprises and form a long-term stable competition pattern. However, with the advent of the era of new energy vehicles, the brand power of automobile enterprises began to reshape.
Cui Yan explained this change with data. Weilai’s three models are priced at more than 350000 yuan, with monthly sales exceeding 5000 last year; The ideal car has only one model, with a price of more than 300000 yuan. The monthly sales volume has exceeded 6000, and the cumulative sales volume has reached 35000; Xiaopeng’s P7 price is more than 200000 yuan, and its monthly sales volume exceeds 4000. G3 price is between 100000 yuan and 200000 yuan, and its monthly sales volume exceeds 2000; BYD Han sold more than 10000 cars in November last year, and Euler black cat sold more than 10000 cars in November last year“ These enterprises have relatively low qualifications, but their new energy models are welcomed by the market, and they are reshaping the market pattern. ” Cui Yan said.
Another feature different from traditional cars is the price. From the perspective of price trend, China’s electric vehicles are quite different from traditional vehicles, and also from foreign electric vehicles. At one time, China’s electric vehicles were concentrated on A0 and A00 models, and the price after subsidy was generally lower than 100000 yuan. With the continuous increase of driving range of electric vehicles in China, the overall price trend is upward, and high-end models are also favored by the market. This trend is consistent with the strategic goal of the transformation and upgrading of China’s automobile industry. While the driving range of foreign electric vehicles continues to increase, the overall price trend is downward. From this, we can see that the price of electric vehicles in China basically overlaps with that of foreign countries, unlike traditional vehicles.
Open the era of platform competition
In the early days, many electric vehicles on the market in China were changed from traditional models, and there was no special platform for electric vehicles. However, this situation has changed greatly in 2020. Cui Yan said: “electric vehicles at home and abroad have entered the era of platform competition.”
In terms of platform, Honda has built a modular EV dedicated platform, and Volkswagen has launched the MEB pure electric platform. In addition, it also includes Daimler Benz mea platform, Toyota tnga architecture platform, Ford global electric platform, GM bev3 platform and BT1 platform. Cui Yan said: “these are platforms specially built by auto companies for new energy vehicles, which are redesigned according to the characteristics of new energy vehicles.”
Not only foreign auto companies, but also many domestic auto companies have abandoned the old way, and set up independent new energy vehicle companies one after another, and created new brands. For example, Dongfeng Group’s new brand “Landu”, SAIC Group’s “Zhiji” brand, GAC new energy renamed GAC AIAN, etc. While straightening out the organizational structure, domestic automobile enterprises have also built their own special new energy vehicle platforms. For example, pure electric platform of GAC, sea vast architecture of Geely Automobile, pure electric platform of BYD e, gep2.0 pure electric platform of GAC, lemon architecture platform of Great Wall Motor and brand new platform of new energy of Chang’an automobile. In Cui Yan’s opinion, “one of the reasons why there were few” popular “new energy models in the past is that most of the models were modified from traditional models, and the newly built exclusive platform makes the chassis design more reasonable, which not only increases the driving range, but also enhances the competitiveness.”
According to reports, SAIC has launched ei5 and er6 on the new platform, and great wall motor has launched white cat and good cat models. These new products are generally welcomed by the market. Cui Yan said: “Great Wall Motor’s white cat and good cat” circle “a large number of female consumers, which shows that the products created by the new platform are more popular.”
The development path of electric vehicles is similar to that of smart phones
In 2020, China’s new energy vehicles will enter the growth period after crossing the critical point of 5%, which is the fastest growth period of the whole industry, and it is also a critical period that auto enterprises must grasp, otherwise they will be eliminated by the market. So how to grasp this opportunity? Cui Yan thinks that we can refer to the development model of smart phones“ In 2017, we published a report in which we proposed that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is similar to that of smart phones. ” She said.
Cui Yan believes that in 2009, the market share of smart phones in China was about 6%. In 2010, the popular mobile phone iPhone 4 appeared. Since then, the growth rate of smart phone market has “drawn” a steep growth curve. In 2020, the market share of new energy vehicles in China will be 5.4%, and there will also be popular products in the market. In Cui Yan’s view, the similarity between the two is mainly reflected in four aspects: first, the increase of residents’ income drives the popularization of products; Second, new energy vehicles and smart phones have a complete industrial system and a large number of talents; Thirdly, both of them have gradually changed from optional consumption to compulsory consumption; Fourth, both of them have fast innovation speed and frequent technology iteration and update. Independent smart phones continue to replace foreign products, and their market share continues to rise. New energy vehicles will also have the phenomenon of continuous replacement of independent products.
Cui Yan believes that in the period of rapid growth, the level of intelligence is the second half of the competition of electric vehicles. From the technical point of view, the automobile is the best carrier of the intelligent network. The architecture develops from distributed to centralized. OTA (space download technology) will give the vehicle the possibility of continuous upgrading and optimization. The continuous improvement of intelligent chip computing power will also bring multiple growth of controller power consumption. Functional safety plus information security will bring health and high reliability to the whole system.
In addition, the growth period and the import period belong to two completely different times. In Cui Yan’s view, when the enterprise is in the import period, the scientific and technological innovation ability is the core, but in the growth period, the product performance of the enterprise is more important. Software will have a greater impact on the performance of new energy vehicles, and the quality of software will bring different intelligent experience to users. These characteristics determine that there is a huge difference between the focus of new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles, which is also what enterprises must pay attention to.
At the annual meeting, some experts pointed out that driven by policies and supply, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 2 million in 2021, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 18% and the sales volume will exceed 5 million in 2025. According to Cui Yan, “this is the minimum standard required by the” double points “policy. The actual sales volume may reach 6.5 million, or even more than 7 million.” She believes that the growth period of new energy vehicles has come, and auto enterprises must seize this historical opportunity.
Editor in charge: Tzh