Recently, the 18 year old power restriction orders, such as “switch on power restriction” and “off peak production”, have come again. Not only Hunan and Zhejiang power supply is tight, but also Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places have restricted the use of electricity, and successively issued the orderly use of electricity or power limit notice, which has aroused widespread concern of the whole society.
“Power restriction order” issued by many provinces
It is understood that at present, Changsha, Huaihua, Yongzhou and other places in Hunan Province have officially started the orderly use of electricity. Hunan Electric Power Company of State Grid expects that the power demand of the whole province will break through the power supply limit of Hunan power grid this winter and next spring. There is a gap of 3-4 million kilowatts of available power and 10-20 million kilowatt hours of daily available power. The relevant departments of Hunan Province propose that all kinds of industrial and commercial enterprises should take the initiative to stagger peak production, close unnecessary landscape lighting facilities, and residents, party and government organs, enterprises and institutions should try not to use high energy consuming electrical appliances during peak load periods.
Zhejiang Province and several cities have issued a notice, requiring the relevant units to turn on the air conditioning and other heating equipment when the temperature in the office area drops below 3 degrees Celsius (including 3 degrees Celsius), and the setting temperature should not exceed 16 degrees Celsius. In some areas, the production of enterprises is limited. According to the response of many factories in Zhejiang Province, they have received an urgent notice that all processing plants should stop production from now until December 31.
At the same time, even Shaanxi Province, which is traditionally considered as a “big energy province”, also has the phenomenon of high power load and tight power supply and demand balance.
The reporter noted that due to the insufficient output of the system, the Ulanqab region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is expected to have a shortage of 3 million KW, which can not be ruled out that the power shortage will increase in the later period. Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a decision to implement interruptible load in the morning and evening peak section every day and start orderly power consumption work from December 15.
There are three main reasons for the shortage of power supply
In response to the problem of tight power supply in some places, the national development and Reform Commission said on the 17th: first, the rapid recovery of industrial production is driving the growth of power consumption. The added value of Hunan’s industries above designated size increased by 7.4% year on year in November, and 4.3% year on year from January to November, 2 percentage points higher than the national average. The added value of Jiangxi’s industries above designated size increased by 7.9% year on year in November, and 4% year on year from January to November, 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average. In November, the added value of industries above Designated Size in Zhejiang increased by 11.9% year-on-year, ranking fifth in China; from January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, more than twice the national average.
The second is to encounter extremely cold weather and further increase the power load. Since December, affected by the strong cold air, the temperature in Hunan and Jiangxi has been abnormally low. Heating in these areas is mainly electric power, which further aggravates the power consumption.
Third, limited external power receiving capacity and unit failure increase the difficulty of power supply guarantee. The capacity of power receiving channels outside Hunan is 6 million kilowatts, and that outside Jiangxi is 2.6 million kilowatts. Due to the long-term high load operation of coal-fired power, the risk of fault increases. Recently, the units of Yueyang Power Plant and Baoqing power plant in Hunan have been shut down, affecting the power supply of 1.02 million kilowatts.
Moreover, with the low temperature, rain and snow weather this winter, the situation of power supply shortage in some places will last until around the Spring Festival next year.
Contradiction between supply and demand
At present, the contradictions between power supply and demand, development and emission are superimposed layer upon layer, which can’t help recalling the relevant suggestions and warnings put forward by Du Zhongming, then member of the Standing Committee and vice president of the Party committee of the general electric power planning and Design Institute, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of Zhongneng Zhixin company a year and a half ago.
As early as June 18, 2019, the General Electric Power Planning Institute held the press conference of China Electric Power Development Report 2018 in Beijing (including analysis of full power supply and demand situation (2019-2021) and analysis of national new energy consumption situation (2019-2021)).
The reporter found that at the meeting, Du Zhongming mentioned that under the premise that the trans provincial transmission channel has been fully delivered, if the increase of power supply is not considered in time, most provinces in the country will be eliminated, and the power supply and demand situation will be tightened in the next three years. Therefore, 16 provinces need to increase power supply and start a batch of preliminary work of thermal power projects in time. East China, central China and South China need to further expand the scale of foreign power.
According to the report “analysis of full power power supply and demand situation (2019-2021)” released at that time, the power supply and demand situation in China will become more and more tight from 2019 to 2021. Considering only the power sources that can be put into operation, and on the premise that the inter provincial power flow arrangement can be implemented, the power supply and demand of Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan will continue to be tight or tense in the next three years; Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanghai, Fujian, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu, Xinjiang, Yunnan and Guizhou will continue to be tight or tense In the next three years, the power supply and demand in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai and Tibet will be more relaxed.
Therefore, in the report, the General Electric Power Planning Institute gave suggestions on increasing power supply and releasing the capacity of transmission channels, such as halving the production of Ximeng to Shandong, Yuheng to Weifang, shanghaimiao to Shandong, Ningdong to Zhejiang, Zhundong to Anhui, Jiuquan to Hunan UHV transmission channels, and removing the supporting power supply from the list of postponed construction.
Today, one and a half years later, when we look back at Du Zhongming’s speech and “analysis of power supply and demand situation (2019-2021)”, we have to admit that the General Electric Power Planning Institute does have foresight. In addition, some people in the industry suggest that in the long run, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of energy infrastructure in weak areas, develop comprehensive energy utilization modes such as natural gas distributed generation, pumped storage power station and multi generation, and realize “peak load cutting and valley filling” through price mechanism.
In view of the “power rationing” policy introduced due to the emission problem, some enterprise leaders believe that this year is a special year impacted by the epidemic situation, so we should try our best to avoid the implementation of “simplification and one size fits all” measures, and can not make the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises “worse”.
Editor in charge ajx