CES exhibition in the United States has always been the technical vane of the global consumer electronics industry. At CES 2020, color TV products have made another “progress” in large-scale. Flat panel technology, laser TV and micro led all achieve 75-100 inch product line coverage. This brings a new “challenge” to the large-scale color TV market, where the growth rate of domestic market is nearly doubled in 2019.
Three major technological interests march into the “big” era
In the domestic color TV market in 2019, the sales volume of products below 60 inches continued to decline. The market share of 60 + products has leaped to 20% for the first time, of which the share of more than 70 + products is close to 2.5%. In the past five years, the sales volume of 70 + products in the domestic market has increased sharply from less than 50000 sets to more than one million sets – the trend of large-scale color TV sets is very obvious: market people think that within two years, every three TVs sold, one TV set will be 65 inch or more products.
The large-scale consumption law of color TV will inevitably promote the “layout transition” of color TV brands:
For example, on the ces2020, Samsung not only displayed the 65-98 inch 8K LCD TV, but also the 75 inch, 88 inch, 93 inch, 110 inch and 150 inch the wall microled TV. As the world’s largest color TV, the “layout” of large-scale products is unprecedented.
On the same stage, Hisense, the leader of color TV in China (although it lost the first place in sales in 2019, its consumption is still stable), has also displayed two series of “large-scale” products of LCD and laser TV. As the flag bearer of global laser TV, Hisense’s layout is extremely complete in RGB three primary colors, flexible anti light screen products and 70 + and other “low unit price” products.
LG, the “OLED” technology leader in the global color TV industry, has further increased the supply of large-scale products: in 2019, the global color TV sales of OLED fell, which is not a good result. But the reason for this decline is that “the proportion of large-scale products has increased, seizing more panel production capacity”. In 2020, LGD said that the 8.5-generation plant in Guangzhou will be fully operated by March this year at the latest, and the supply of OLED TV panels will increase from 3.3 million in 2019 to about 6 million this year. Sales of large OLED TVs are expected to rise.
For such “big size trend”, Sony even pointed out on the ces2020 that “8K TV under 75 inches is meaningless” – although this statement is aimed at 8K TV, it also explains the key meaning of “big size”: that is, 8K should expect big size redemption. Because, although 55 or 65 inch 8K products can be manufactured, the “cost” increase of human eye resolution beyond the ideal viewing distance is not in line with the value of consumers.
At the same time, in another display application of ces2020 – public display, large-scale products are equally popular: intelligent digital IOT application brought by 5g era has a huge driving force for public display demand. And the public display of the sense of space, display shock demand natural demand “big size”!
To sum up, CES 2020 shows that manufacturers are particularly fond of large-scale products, and the brands of “no large-scale” products for public display and color TV products are already zero. The popularity of large-scale color TV sets, at least in developed areas such as China, the United States, Europe and Japan, has been “not on target, but on target”. Moreover, OLED and LCD represent flat panel display, microled technology and laser TV, forming “three different technology paths”.
Technology against the future of color TV
In the face of three technology trends of large-scale TV, many consumers will think of the “battle for the future throne” of plasma PDP TV, LCD LCD TV and rear projection TV 20 years ago! However, different from the previous three technologies, which are “product characteristics can be determined”, the current large-scale technology competition, the three technologies “have obvious differences”.
From CES exhibits, flat panel displays, whether liquid crystal or OLED, are subject to the limitations of glass substrate and TFT technology. The largest product is only 98 inches. The highest price is 86 inches. This actually makes the flat panel technology the “small” choice in the “big TV”: and with the freezing of the construction technology of the higher generation line after the 10.5/11 generation line, further breaking through the bottleneck of large size in the future, the flat panel technology is “very unlikely”.
On the other hand, flat panel display industry is a typical industry of “large-scale semiconductor” manufacturing. It has the double advantages of capacity scale and manufacturing efficiency. In 2019, the average price of 75 inch and above flat plates will drop by 20%, only thanks to the 10.5/11 generation lines of BOE and csot. In the future, at least four similar production lines will be put into production. From this point of view, the supply of large-scale flat-panel TV will be very rich and the price will be very low. It is not impossible to reduce 75 inches to 3000 +, and it is possible to reduce 86 inches to 5000 +.
In contrast to the semiconductor display features, the color TV set with microled technology, Samsung has launched 75-150 inch products. In fact, Konka and other brands have put forward the concepts of 200 +, 300 +. Microled essentially adopts splicing display technology, so “large scale” has no suspense, and it can be as big as you want.
However, as a new technology breakthrough product, microled is not perfect. For example, the appearance problem of pixel graining, and the extremely high price at present – domestic manufacturer 4K 100 inch 79999 yuan is the lowest price at present. In addition, restricted by the huge transfer technology, the future price trend, capacity expansion capacity, yield and defect index of microled are all unknown. However, in any case, if consumers want a “big enough” TV, microled is the most certain technology – and microled can also be made into a flat-panel shape effect.
Compared with the above two technologies, the uniqueness of laser TV products is “more” special. From the perspective of product display size, laser TV can achieve 70-150 inch products. If the anti light screen technology advances, the display size of laser TV can be increased. At the same time, laser TV has a significant advantage of “viewing vision” in image quality: although in projection display, environmental light has destructive effect on image quality; anti light screen does not completely avoid this problem — however, large-scale TV, natural full screen energy output is higher, showing stronger “high brightness eye fatigue characteristics”. The reflection bionic imaging of laser TV can effectively resist this “discomfort”. This is an advantage that flat panel displays or microleds don’t have.
However, on the other hand, the product structure of screen + host makes laser TV in a different form. It is still unknown whether it can win the favor of consumers in a large scale. And the price of anti light screen of laser TV keeps high, which greatly hinders the expansion of product market scale.
Therefore, the three large-scale technologies of color TV have their own “weaknesses”: the size limitation of the glass substrate of the flat panel, the huge transfer of microled, the anti light curtain of laser TV; the three technologies also have their own advantages, such as the cost advantage of the flat panel, the infinite advantage of microled, and the image quality comfort advantage of laser TV. This difference makes it difficult to “distinguish” the winner from the loser in the three technologies at least in the short term: LG, Sony and other brands have chosen to support the development of two or even three technology routes.
Facing the future, 8K may be the key to variables
For the large-scale color TV, 8K support is inevitable: according to industry information, panel companies believe that in 2020, 50-60% of LCD and OLED TV panels with 75 inches and above will be 8K products. The sales of 75 + inch TVs account for half of 4K and half of 8K respectively.
However, the 8K technology of liquid crystal and OLED is mature, and the cost of 8K LCD large-scale panel is only 30% higher than that of 4K; while the 8K projection technology is still in its infancy, and 8K laser TV will not appear for the time being; 8K microled products do not have theoretical difficulties, but the current technology requires a giant screen of more than 150 inches – consumers who need such a large TV are bound to be very limited. In other words, in the current 8K index and the three major size TV routes, only the LCD and OLED can achieve the mainstream size, and only the LCD has a relatively economic price.
Industry experts pointed out that although large-scale TV is a trend, 75-100 inch is still the main market space hard to shake in the short term. This determines the technical bottleneck of large-scale LCD and OLED, which will not become a “market-oriented product problem” for the time being. However, the pressure of micro LED’s small size is huge, and the pressure of laser TV’s price war against LCD is also great. This is also the key to the market of 75 + large-scale color TV sets in China today. LCD, OLED and other flat technologies account for 8 components.
However, from another point of view, the popularity of 8K content is far away — the current planning of radio and television system, Ultra HD will be dominated by 4K, and 8K will make necessary high-end supplement: under this pattern, whether it is necessary for large-scale TV to be fully 8K oriented is a big problem. This may be another industry competition variable.
However, 2020 will be the explosive year of large-scale TV. The three technologies of CES show compete with each other and the cost of products keeps falling, which has opened a new chapter in the “big era” of color TV. No matter which technology wins this competition for whatever reason, or the three major technologies continue to survive, it will not change the reality that the era of big color TV has come. The industry expects that in 2020, the total increment of 75 + color TV products in China will continue to double, and the market scale will reach 2 million sets or more.