Intelligent mobile phone
2019 has become the third consecutive year of decline in the domestic smartphone market, and the arrival of 5g is like a ray of sunshine in the severe winter, which is highly expected by the whole industry. IDC believes that 5g is indeed like the warm sun in winter, which is an important opportunity to help the domestic mobile phone market out of the severe winter, but the driving force that really drives the market forward and out of the trough should come from the active changes and innovations made by all industry participants based on the new technology trend, so as to create and stimulate the needs of consumers in this process.
Wang Xi, China Research Manager of IDC, believes that 5g will undoubtedly promote the whole mobile phone industry, and the whole industry will make all-round changes to meet the new era. Since 2020, the industry will make continuous active changes from three aspects: product design focus, channel positioning and future ecological construction, so as to embrace the 5g era.
IDC’s top ten forecasts for China’s mobile phone market in 2020 are as follows:
The domestic market bottomed out and rebounded: in 2020, the concept of “5g has arrived” will accelerate into the public view under the continuous promotion of the whole industry. The rapid coverage of the domestic 5g mobile phone market and the exposure of a large amount of information in terminal stores will inject key driving force into the domestic market with insufficient decisive motivation for users to change their phones. IDC expects that the growth rate of domestic smartphone shipments will return to positive growth in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%.
5g market, terminal first: the domestic 5g market will be driven by terminal equipment that goes down to the mainstream price segment faster. IDC believes that in the short term, 5g terminal shipments will lead the number of 5g network users. Throughout the domestic historical market, the price segment below 2000 yuan, which accounts for the largest proportion in the domestic market, has always been the main price segment of the “volume” of major manufacturers. Manufacturers who obtain the first opportunity in this price segment will occupy a greater advantage in the overall market. Therefore, when the price of 5g models drops to less than 2000 yuan, it will become the key to the layout and competition of manufacturers and upstream suppliers. IDC expects that in 2020, more than 20% of 5g mobile phones will be lower than the price of 2000 yuan.
The average unit price will reach the peak: with the initial penetration of domestic 5g mobile phones and the impact of external macro factors such as exchange rate, IDC expects that the average unit price of China’s mobile phone market will increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2020. In the future, the price war of 5g mobile phones will also come in advance, and the long-term average unit price will continue to decline. 2020 will also be the year with the highest average unit price of mobile phones in the domestic market in the next five years.
5g enabled commercial mobile phone: in the commercial communication environment, stability, flexibility and security are essential. With the continuous development and coverage of 5g network, more mobile phones will be applied in all walks of life, and will play an important role in the future commercial communication process. IDC predicts that by 2021, 20% of commercial mobile phones will be connected through 5g to optimize commercial communication scenarios.
The video competition of mobile phones is becoming more and more intense: video is the application scenario that is most closely connected with 5g and most easy to improve the use experience. Therefore, the photography function is still the key upgrading field of smart phones. The competition of mobile cameras in quantity and quality will continue, and the related software strength and content ecological construction ability will become a more concerned topic for manufacturers. IDC expects that by 2021, more than 50% of mobile phone manufacturers will launch new photography software functions based on new imaging system hardware, and cooperate with the video platform to develop richer video playing methods.
Changes in product design focus: in recent years, a complete and comprehensive screen shape has always been the goal pursued by all manufacturers. Mechanical lifting, “punching”, “bangs”, and even sliding cover, double screen and other schemes emerge one after another. At the same time, the corresponding components of 5g function and the continuously upgraded rear camera module also put forward higher requirements for the design and stacking of the internal structure of the mobile phone. IDC expects that in 2020, the application of mechanical structure will be more cautious, and the “perforated screen” design that takes into account the thickness and stability of the fuselage will gradually become the mainstream. In 2020, about 1 / 3 of mobile phone screens will adopt the design of “perforated screen”.
Folding screen is still a minority: as a new terminal category in 2019, folding screen mobile phones will inject some vitality into the whole industry in the future. However, due to the yield, price, and relatively limited use scenarios and people, folding screen mobile phones will still exist as an unusual minority product in the short term. IDC predicts that the market capacity of folding screen mobile phones in the domestic market will be less than 400000 in 2020.
Reshaping the channel positioning of operators: with the gradual cessation of subsidies for intelligent terminals and the continuous pressure drop of channel fees, the channel positioning of operators will be reorganized in the future. IDC believes that in the future, as the intersection of users, intelligent terminals and 5g network services, operators will accelerate the creation of a full scene and multi terminal ecology based on their own ties, and promote the emergence of a new 5g business model.
Traditional channels are facing a new transformation: at present, traditional retail channels still occupy the position of the largest sales channel of smart phones. However, with the gradual increase of the proportion of online channels and the transformation of cooperation mode brought by the reshaping of channel positioning of operators, the transformation of new business between traditional channels and stores is imminent. In the future, the introduction of new partners through cross-border integration, the promotion mode of promoting cross industry cross cooperation, targeted promotion for strongly related user groups, the introduction of more diversified ecological categories, and the continuous construction and promotion of scene experience sales mode will become the focus of traditional channels.
The second-hand market will be further stimulated: in the future, 5g and other new technologies will give priority to driving the replacement demand of line 1-2 cities, so it will accelerate the birth of more second-hand mobile phones. Whether on the consumer side or the industry side, second-hand mobile phones will accelerate the precipitation to the domestic low-line market, and the second-hand mobile phone industry chain will be stimulated and continue to accelerate its operation. IDC expects that the accelerated activation of second-hand mobile phone business will not be simply regarded as a challenge by manufacturers. Taking advantage of the trend to drive the new machine market, as well as exploring new cooperation modes, and correctly guiding the flow of old machines will become the business development direction of manufacturers facing the second-hand market.
Responsible editor; zl