Core Points of VR Communication
Size and Brand Share:
1) In the first half of the year, the shipment of VR headsets was 6.5-7 million, and the annual shipment is expected to be 15-16 million.
2) In 2021, Meta’s market share will be 75%-80%, Pico 4%, and Sony 4%.
3) Apple MR is expected to be released in Q1 next year, and the first batch is about 1-1.5 million units.
Apple MR cost:
1) The display part accounts for 20%, and the SOC chip accounts for 20%-25%.
2) The Pancake module costs 60-80 US dollars. One module needs 2 polarizers, and the cost of polarizers accounts for 40%-50%.
Optical scheme comparison:
1) Fresnel lens: the mainstream optical solution, the imaging is relatively clear, the field of view will be relatively large, the technology is relatively mature, and the cost is also advantageous. The domestic production and supply are relatively stable.
2) Pancake: The device is lightweight, but the FOV is relatively small and the light efficiency is poor, so a brighter display is required.
VR Industry Expert Exchange 2208
1. The current mainstream VR headsets in the market have basically met the three major indicators for eliminating dizziness, and the product form is mature, and the technical route for later development is relatively clear. Consumer-grade VR products have ushered in an inflection point and began to rapidly increase in volume. In 22Q1, the global VR headset display 3.563 million units of goods. Major manufacturers have entered the game one after another, and Tencent announced the official establishment of an “extended reality” (XR) department to deploy the entire industry chain in the XR field; ByteDance raised the sales target of its subsidiary Pico’s VR products to 1.8 million units in 2022 (the original target was 100 10,000 units), and has begun to form a new team in the United States, mainly focusing on VR content licensing and marketing its VR hardware to US consumers, while transferring some US employees from TIkTok to Pico, and is stepping up to find high-quality content for Pico.
2. In terms of equipment, Apple’s first MR equipment is expected to be launched next year, and the market has attracted a lot of attention. Both Quest’s new generation equipment and Pico’s new equipment are expected to be listed within this year. This week, Skyworth VR released the new product PANCAKE 1, and the hardware side maintains a state of rapid iteration. The industry’s prosperity continues to rise.
3. At present, the domestic application ecology represented by Pico is still in the initial stage of development, and there is a lack of self-developed high-quality content in content. Under the circumstance that content is relatively scarce during the period of rapid increase in new platforms, the possibility of high-quality content becoming a hit has greatly increased. Traditional content developers are expected to gain industry dividends first. Many companies have set up projects for VR games, which are expected to come out one after another by the end of the year. At present, the majority of VR content is game content. With the increase of ByteDance’s investment in the VR field and the continuous increase of Pico terminals, the creation of content ecology has become an important point of view, and industrial ecological partners are expected to enter the relevant ecology of cooperation with ByteDance. Partners deserve special attention.
A summary of the industry chain links worth paying attention to in the VRAR track:
Display technology: The continuous improvement of resolution and response time brings users a more realistic and immersive experience, and the penetration rate of Mini LED is gradually increasing. Longli Technology: Supply mini led backlight modules for major customers in North America. The value of a single machine is 100-150 yuan. The company’s profit is expected to be 250-300 million next year. Optical lens: The next-generation Pancake solution can greatly reduce the thickness of VR glasses and improve the visual experience. The current mainstream product The projects have been adopted and are expected to become mainstream solutions. Sanlipu: Provide pancake modules for domestic VR head brands, 200 yuan per machine, the company’s profit forecast next year is 500-550 million Cameras: With the introduction of more functions such as eye tracking, the number of cameras per device will increase. . Sunny Optical: Provide Fresnel and pancake lens modules and various camera modules for major North American customers. The value of a single machine is 400-900 yuan. Next year, the company will make a profit of 6.0-6.5 billion. Apple MR supplier: Apple MR will be released early next year, Relevant suppliers benefit. Changying Precision: Supplying middle frame for MR products for major customers in North America, the value of a single machine is 1,500 yuan, and the company will make a profit of 600-700 million next year. Zhaowei Electromechanical: Supply gear transmission system for MR, a major customer in North America. Luxshare Precision: To undertake the NPI and assembly of AR glasses for the next generation of North American customers.
Other terminal brands and OEM links: The development of the domestic VR market brings opportunities for domestic ecology and industry chain Goertek: VR OEM leader. Skyworth Digital: The only listed company with a VR terminal brand. Crystal Optoelectronics: Leading domestic AR optical waveguide technology VR content: Kaiying Network, Fuchun Co., Ltd., Baotong Technology, Hengxin Oriental, Caesar Culture, Zitian Technology, etc. IP side: Palmyue Technology (upstream digital content + platform, the only A-share listed company in which Byte is a shareholder) If the beta of VR content rises, it will have a driving effect on the entire media content industry.
Relevant expert exchange minutes:
Q: How do you view the trend of domestic VR content scenarios? non-gaming?
A: 1) The company’s own travel and adventure video clips are used to attract users, attract new people, and verify the establishment of the business model; 2) The real profitable part is the IP business, that is, SNH48 fans have a strong willingness to pay 3) VR The content ecology has a prototype, but the user volume is low, the monetization ability is poor, and the income of the creators is not enough. Q: How do you view the layout of bytes in vr content?
1) The cooperation between the company and Pico is the content, such as “My VR Girlfriend”, etc. The company will have a small share, but the key is to obtain data; 2) The video playback volume sold by the company to Pico is not as good as the company’s own Go Now platform The same video has a high playback volume. 3) Pico also made a live broadcast of virtual people at the end of last year. It wants to open up the format and has the logic of imitation; Pico also has a content support plan, and also found a company, hoping to attract high-quality content to Pico. 4) VR glasses The daily activity and daily viewing time cannot be compared with the mobile terminal, and it is difficult to establish a pure toC-end ecosystem , but the long-term retention is not high, which is also a problem of VR applications 6) IP business has fans and has long-term effects, so the company is optimistic 7) Pico will use the logic of short video to operate Pico, which can objectively increase the amount of data, but it is not very consistent The operation logic of the company’s products, during the Chinese New Year, the number of users reached 100,000, the daily life was more than 1,000, and the conversion rate of purchase and review is also high; Tencent has a deeper understanding of the game, so the company Q: What is the payment rate for VR live broadcast in the cooperation with Tencent ?
A: A live broadcast has 100-200 people paying to buy and watch it (more than 200 during the New Year, and 100 in normal times), and the number of simultaneous online views is 3,000-4,000; the live broadcast does not require money but pays for the review Q: After the Pico promotion, the number of hardware reserved Has there been an increase, and have users’ demands for content applications changed?
1) Connecting anyone based on the content, that is, social networking, can promote and retain 2) SNH48 has independent retention, expanding 100 users means 100 sales; for those without SNH48 promotion, it is proportional to Pico’s daily activity ;3) The download registration rate of Go Now has recently increased. There are hundreds of thousands of downloads, but the registration rate is low, and the connection cannot be generated well; when Pico is hot, the download registration rate has increased. It can be seen that users are no longer limited to taking a look at VR, so the registration rate has increased, indicating that the awareness of VR applications has improved. Q: How do you view the flywheel relationship between VR content and hardware? Who drives whom content and hardware?
A: Many aspects restrict the development of VR
Industry chain + protocol standards are not unified
1) The mobile phone base station is a unified standard, so various manufacturers are developing rapidly, and the industry chain is complete. 2) There is no unified standard in the VR industry chain. It is a video from 2016, the update is slow 3) Quest and Pico improve the experience of the VR all-in-one machine and make it comfortable to wear, so the industry chain will follow 4) The VR glasses experience is a key factor, if you want to become a tablet with the same status, it must be improved Experience, Q: Is the industry waiting for content explosions? What form might that be?
A: 1) Quest’s “Half-Life” game is profitable, but no one will play it soon this year, the game may be short-lived; applications and popular content will not have a decisive impact 2) ToC’s hardware products are the key, The company expects that FB’s Cambria headset and Apple’s MR may have full perspective, preferably light, otherwise the demand will not rise, not just game consoles. Q: How much more difficult is VR video shooting than 2D video shooting?
A: 1) VR cameras are expensive, 8k cameras are 4-5k for civilian use, and 1-2w for high-end configuration. The company’s self-developed output is small and the cost is tens of thousands; 2) The bandwidth problem is a major problem of VR live broadcast, and there are also problems with 5G , it can be done smoothly in China Mobile Lab, but the outdoor shooting of VR live broadcast is affected by the network 3) Shooting concept: VR shooting lens can not be strongly moved or switched, otherwise it will be dizzy; the photographer cannot be behind the lens during panoramic shooting; lighting is also It is different from traditional shooting; VR beauty can be achieved technically, but lacks mature solutions; the biggest problem is VR equipment and network bandwidth; the VR content in Kuaishou B station is average, users generally do not use them to tell stories, professional Low Q: Will the realization of VR be restricted due to the necessity of VR hardware? A: 1) Huawei’s VR supports texting and calling
2) It is difficult for VR to cut the time of mobile phones, and mobile phones make users lazy; VR needs to wear equipment and use gestures, but it will consume user energy, users may not like to use it, and will regard VR as a game console 3) Unless VR has tool attributes , may be able to drive; for example, VR to hold a conference call, can obtain information faster than a mobile phone or tablet, and it is expected to replace the tablet or mobile phone position; for example, the Apple Watch is used by some people, because it receives messages faster than a mobile phone, and you can see it by looking at your wrist; 4) Digital assets have long-term significance, and may have a combined effect with VR 5) There is no scene for VR to quickly acquire users
Editor: Huang Fei