The global economic growth has slowed down since 2019. The IMF has continuously lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2019. The economic growth of developed economies such as the United States and Europe has slowed down in 2019, while the economic growth of most developing countries in Asia is not satisfactory in 2019. In the fourth quarter, the trade friction between China and the United States was suspended, and the PMI index of the world’s major economies temporarily recovered above the boom and bust line. However, under the constraints of the weakening effect of global monetary policy, the risk of trade friction still exists, and the Sino US trade has not yet stabilized, the foundation of global economic stabilization is not solid.
According to the global TV market research data of sigmaintell, under the unfavorable background of sluggish global TV market demand in the first three quarters, driven by the better than expected sales results of “black five” in North America market and “double eleven” in China market in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the easing of Sino US trade war, the global TV market’s total shipment in 2019 was 240 million units, The year-on-year growth was 0.4%.
It is worth noting that under the impact of the new type of coronary pneumonia epidemic, major economies around the world started a new round of interest rate cuts to combat the decline in demand. However, in the current environment of “low growth, high inflation and low interest rates”, policy space is limited, global financial vulnerability continues to accumulate, and economic downward pressure is still large. Sigmaintell believes that although the promotion of “European Cup”, “Olympic Games” and other events can drive the growth of demand to a certain extent, affected by the adverse factors of economic downturn and epidemic spread, it is expected that the global TV shipment will decrease by 1.8% year on year in 2020, with the shipment scale of 236 million units.
The shipping scale is stable, and the competition of brands among regions is more intense
Samsung’s annual shipment in 2019 was 42.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%. With a good layout of overseas factories, Samsung Electronics avoided risks in the Sino US trade war. Samsung’s North American shipment accounted for a small increase in its total shipment compared with 2018. Due to its large volume, the growth of North America has made a significant contribution to its global shipment scale. In addition, thanks to the good product structure, Samsung Electronics has further stabilized its market share in North America and Europe through active promotion strategy, which has caused a great impact on many competitive brands.
TCL’s annual shipment in 2019 was 31.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The trade war between China and the United States has had a great impact on TCL. However, through rapid strategic changes, TCL has launched a positive attack on regions outside North America, such as Southeast Asia and Europe. In terms of the proportion of sub regions, the proportion of North America decreased by nearly 14 percentage points, while that of Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe increased by 6 and 5 percentage points respectively. At the same time, in terms of OEM, relying on the stable cooperation with Xiaomi, the overall shipment volume has increased again.
LG Electronics (LGE) annual shipment in 2019 was 26.4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2%. Under the impact of the price reduction of qled TV, the sales volume of OLED TV of LG Electronics will decline significantly in 2019, and the operating profit will face a huge challenge. At the same time, affected by the strategy of competitors, LCD TV sales are also facing a lot of pressure, and the overall shipment has declined slightly. LG Electronics has always attached importance to profitability, and has not actively carried out price reduction and promotion activities. However, due to the increasingly fierce competition among brands, it is expected that the long-term maintenance will have a great impact on their market share.
Hisense’s annual shipment in 2019 was 18.1 million units, up 8% year on year. After the strategic adjustment in the first half of the year, Hisense’s operation in the second half of the year was relatively stable, and continued to increase its domestic market and expand its market share. Affected by the Sino US tariff negotiations, from the perspective of overseas regions, North American shipment is greatly affected by the Sino US trade war. In addition to the Middle East and Africa region and Japan (Toshiba brand), Hisense has also spread the focus of overseas sales to Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. With good marketing methods of sports sponsorship and personal media publicity, the TV shipments in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe have increased by nearly 6% and 3% respectively compared with 2018. In the case of relatively weak domestic demand, Hisense is expected to target more resources at the broad overseas market in the future.
SKYWORTH’s annual shipment in 2019 was 13.8 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%. In the domestic market, Skyworth’s domestic sales maintained growth in the first three quarters and declined in the fourth quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 9%. In the export market, affected by the positive strategies of other brands, the annual shipment decreased by 12% year on year, especially in Southeast Asia, with a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the internal proportion decreased by 6%. SKYWORTH will focus on cultivating overseas markets this year, stabilize market share through various OEM businesses, and actively explore new ways to improve profits.
The annual shipment volume of MI in 2019 was 13.3 million units, a significant increase of 49% over the same period last year. In 2019, Xiaomi will rapidly expand its market share in China, and successfully reach a record high of more than 10 million units for domestic sales. In the export market, Xiaomi continues to dig deep into the Indian market. And continuously increase sales to Russia, Spain and other countries in order to achieve greater growth in overseas markets.
Sony’s annual shipment in 2019 was 10.1 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%. In order to ensure profits, Sony has significantly reduced the sales of small and medium-sized and low-end products in 2019. What is more noteworthy is that Sony’s OLED TV sales have not been greatly affected by QD TV; At the same time, with its excellent brand image, Sony has won great repercussions in the market after launching super large TVs such as “entry-level 75”.
Changhong’s annual shipment in 2019 was 9.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%. In 2019, Changhong’s overseas OEM business will continue to grow steadily, and its cooperation with Latin American brands will achieve a substantial growth with its rapid delivery. At the same time, relying on the advantages of “China Europe train”, according to the data of sigmaintell, Changhong has increased its export volume to Eastern Europe, accounting for 5% of the total export volume compared with that of 18 years, and the annual performance of the shipment volume is outstanding. In the domestic market, due to the continuous contraction of its offline channels, coupled with the general environment of low demand, the decline of shipment volume is obvious.
Philips shipped 9 million units in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Although Philips’s market share in China is decreasing, its popularity in Europe is still high, and its overall shipment remains stable.
Konka’s annual shipment in 2019 was 6.6 million units, a slight decrease of 1% year on year. Affected by the price war, Konka’s share in the domestic market continues to decrease, so it has to turn its attention to the overseas market. Since the fourth quarter, Konka’s export orders to Southeast Asia have increased significantly. In addition, according to sigmaintell’s data, Konka’s shipment in Latin America in 2019 accounted for 26% of its total shipment compared with 2018, becoming the largest export region. With high-quality manufacturing capacity, Konka will make up for the loss of domestic sales by expanding its OEM business in the future.
Note: the above shipment does not deduct the OEM quantity between brands
Low price stimulates large-scale market demand, and the average terminal price will rise in 2020
In 2019, the supply and demand of panel market will be unbalanced, and the price of most panel sizes will reach the level below the cash cost. Driven by the price war, the price of TVs of all sizes hit a new low in 2019.
Sigmaintell predicts that the proportion of products above 65 “in 2020 is expected to increase by 2.6 percentage points compared with that in 2019, driving the average area to 47.2”, an increase of 0.9 “compared with that in 2019. 65 “and 55” are the golden size of living room. Affected by the decline of panel price and the deepening of consumption concept of large screen, the market share of 65 “TV will increase by 2.3 percentage points year on year in 2019; The market share of “55” was maintained due to the withdrawal of Korean panel factories from LCD camp, the continuous control of production capacity of Chinese panel factories and the extrusion effect of “65”. The popularity of “50” in overseas market is much higher than that in domestic market. Affected by the continuous increase of panel supply, the market share of “50” is 3.1 percentage points higher than that in 2018; Driven by the price, some 32 “demand has shifted to 43”, and this trend is more obvious in mature markets, but 32 “is still in strong demand in emerging markets, so it also occupies the largest share in the global market.
The market demand stimulated by low price will continue to be driven by the competition effect in 2020. However, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the short-term shortage of supply has led to the expansion of panel price increase (see “epidemic impact analysis: Q1 global LCD TV panel shipment decreased by 3.6%, short-term price increase expanded”). If this expansion trend continues to the second quarter, it may lead to the rise of the average price of LCD TV sets, which will have an adverse impact on terminal demand.
In the highly competitive market environment, only by making sufficient preparations in advance can we achieve success
The ancients said, “if you plan, you will stand, if you don’t plan, you will waste.” this sentence is also very appropriate to describe today’s market environment. At present, the downtown pressure on the economy is increasing, and New Coronavirus is spreading globally. The downward pressure on the global economy is increasing, and the price of terminal products is rising. Despite the “European Cup” and “Olympic Games” two major events blessing, but in 2020 the global TV market growth is facing huge risks, the competition pattern is bound to be more dangerous. Therefore, sigmaintell suggests that TV companies can find opportunities and avoid risks through the following aspects:
1. The epidemic has a profound impact on consumer habits, and the potential demand for games, education and other functions will be stimulated. The brand should pay attention to the change of consumer trend and adjust the product structure;
2. At the same time, the epidemic has also brought about changes in the channel structure, which has a huge impact on the offline market. The offline market will be more difficult, but it has a positive and positive impact on the online market. Manufacturers should quickly adjust the channel strategy and increase the online layout;
3. Pay close attention to the situation of new type of coronavirus in trading countries, timely understand the time required for customs clearance, inspection and quarantine, and reduce the losses caused by force majeure;
4. With the rise of trade protectionism, we should accelerate the layout of global production capacity and control the policy risk of major trading countries, so as to minimize the risk of trade friction.