Under the background of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and the upgrading of automobile industry, the development of automobile electrification and intelligent network has been further accelerated.
“Electrification is only the 1.0 version of this automotive revolution. The future car is not only a hardware product, but also a mobile intelligent terminal with data determining experience and software defining products.” Chen Qingtai, chairman of the 100 people’s Association of China’s electric vehicles, said.
It is estimated that by 2030, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China will reach 15 million, and the number of ownership will reach 80 million. The penetration rate of different levels of automatic driving function of new vehicles will reach 70%.
“If the production and sales forecast of electric vehicles is to become a reality, it involves the adjustment of energy structure, the construction of smart grid, the upgrading of transportation infrastructure, the support of a new generation of mobile communication, the adjustment and transformation of industrial chain, the establishment and adjustment of standards and regulations, and the transfer of jobs, etc., which is a magnificent industrial revolution.” Chen Qingtai said.
According to Zhang Yongwei, secretary general and chief expert of China electric vehicle 100 people’s Congress, the relationship among people, vehicles and cities in the future will be reshaped by new technologies and business models of travel services.
Autonomous driving is far from consumer goods
On October 21, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla’s full self driving beta software has been launched to a small number of customers. As early as July, Elon Musk said at the 2020 world artificial intelligence conference that he was confident to complete the development of the basic functions of L5 level automatic driving this year.
In fact, automatic driving has become a promising future automobile development trend by many enterprises at home and abroad: Amazon invested more than 1 billion US dollars to acquire the unmanned company zoox; Google waymo became Volvo’s automatic driving technology partner, and cooperated with Daimler to build L4 automatic driving truck.
In the domestic market, technology giants such as Ali, Baidu, Didi, Huawei, Geely, Chang’an, BAIC and other traditional automobile enterprises, new automobile manufacturing forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal, as well as start-ups such as Yushi technology and autox have rushed into the automatic driving track.
For the development of the future automatic driving industry, Tian Feng, general manager of InBev super computing, believes that in the future smart city, automatic driving is a “necklace” linking all “pearls”. “No matter unmanned shops or hospitals, all involve the flow of people and things in reality, and they all rely on automatic driving. In my opinion, in the whole construction of a smart city, automatic driving should be the rope of the “necklace” to string all the relevant contents of the smart city together. “
According to Xu Heyi, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference and deputy director of the Economic Committee of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the Chinese people’s Political Consultative Conference, with the rapid development of new energy and intelligent Internet connection, electric vehicles with automatic driving function in the future travel system will become the optimal travel carrier. In the future, the automobile will be separated from the attribute of the vehicle. As a new infrastructure, intelligent vehicle will promote the integrated development of intelligent transportation and smart city.
Wang Xiaojing, chairman of the China Intelligent Transportation Industry Alliance and chief scientist of the national intelligent transportation system engineering technology research center, believes that driverless cars still have a long way to go to become consumer goods. “Rome was not built in a day. Technology is constantly improving. We choose the right breakthrough and the right time to build the appropriate system. This is from the perspective of economic and social development, not just the progress of single technology.” In Wang Xiaojing’s opinion, as an emerging technology, the reliability, cost and legal boundary of automatic driving need to be further optimized and improved.
In fact, at present, the application of automatic driving technology is continuously advancing. For example, driverless taxis and buses in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen and other cities are carrying out manned tests on urban roads.
Regarding the commercialization prospect of automatic driving, Jiang Yiming, partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers strategic management consulting (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., thinks that the road is still “blocked and long”. In a survey of acceptance and willingness to pay for driving by autopilot, one thousand consumers from China, Germany and the United States were selected respectively. The results show that Chinese consumers have the highest acceptance of self driving taxis, but their willingness to pay is far lower than that of American and German consumers. On average, Chinese consumers are willing to pay an extra RMB 1 yuan for automatic driving. Compared with German consumers, German consumers are willing to pay more than US $5 and American consumers are willing to pay US $2 more. “So it is difficult to collect money from the operator alone for automatic driving. We need to charge from other angles.” Jiang Yiming said.
Share travel or become the future city travel normal
Affected by the epidemic situation, China’s public transport passenger volume has been in a cliff like decline this year. According to public data, the total passenger traffic volume of 36 central cities in China fell 39% year on year in September. However, it has also spawned other forms of travel, such as customized, reserved, and shared travel modes. Many cities have launched customized public transport and demand responsive public transport services, which promote the rapid development of customized and reserved public transport, and promote the development of demand-oriented urban transport supply mode.
“In the context of the normalization of the epidemic situation, from the perspective of traffic travel structure demand and long-term trend, the characteristics of urban traffic supply and operation service mode are undergoing major changes, but the basic logic of urban traffic will not be changed due to the epidemic situation. Advocating public transport priority, slow traffic priority and green travel is still the core concept of urban traffic demand in China.” Meng Qiu, a second-class inspector of the transportation service department of the Ministry of transport, said.
Chen Yongwei believes that the future travel mode will be the deep integration of shared travel and automatic driving, thoroughly change the urban traffic system composed of traditional private cars, and provide solutions for three urban traffic congestion problems: excessive number of private cars, unreasonable urban traffic system, and smooth traffic impact caused by traffic accidents.
“China’s transportation characteristics determine that public travel should become the main mode of travel. The integration of shared travel and automatic driving will greatly reduce the probability of traffic accidents; reduce urban congestion, when the penetration rate of automatic driving reaches 90%, the road congestion can be reduced by 60%; releasing urban space, each additional automatic driving vehicle can replace 11 ~ 14 private ownership, reduce 20 parking spaces, improve the utilization efficiency of the whole car, and release more More urban space. ” Chen Yongwei said.
In the vision of Wu Gansha, founder and CEO of Yushi technology, the shared and miniaturized two seater cars will be the main force of urban transportation in the future. Data shows that 95% of the life cycle of a car is in a stop state, 0.8% of the time is looking for parking space, 1.2% is driving at low speed and idle speed, and only 2.5% of the time is at normal speed. Shared travel will greatly improve the utilization rate of vehicles.
Wu Gansha believes that in the future, the two shared driverless cars in formation will increase the traffic flow of single lane by three to four times, thus reducing the number of lanes, improving the pedestrian space, shared space and green space in the road, and the city will be more people-oriented.
The report “reshaping travel: the integration and evolution of shared travel and automatic driving” released by the 100 people’s meeting of electric vehicles makes a judgment on the market prospect of shared travel. According to the calculation of 100 people’s Congress of electric vehicles, the total mileage of China’s automobile travel in 2030 is expected to increase by nearly 50% compared with that in 2020, reaching 5.7 trillion kilometers per year. At present, the penetration rate of shared travel is relatively low, accounting for only 4.2%. By 2030, the penetration rate of shared travel in China will increase significantly, which is expected to reach 45%.
The electric vehicle 100 people will make a prediction according to the research, the total cost of the intelligent sharing trip will drop from 20 yuan / km in 2020 to less than 1.5 yuan / km in 2030, and there will be fully automatic driving vehicle in 2022. In 2025, the total production of fully automatic driving vehicles will be realized.
Editor in charge: yyx