The new infrastructure, the “fire of science and technology”, is spreading to various industries and playing a huge leading role.
In 2020, the charging pile of new energy vehicles will be officially included in the seven new infrastructure projects of the country and stand in the center of the stage.
As a strategic and pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is now undergoing the transformation from traditional fuel vehicles to intelligent electric vehicles. As the basic energy supplement facility of electric vehicle, charging pile is the most basic grasp in the construction of new infrastructure of automobile industry.
With the policy support superimposed on the bright prospect of the market, various capitals and related enterprises began to accelerate the layout of the charging pile market. Yiou automobile believes that with the drive of new technologies and the integrated development of new infrastructure across fields, the charging infrastructure industry will usher in a new round of development cycle.
Based on its insight into the market, on August 7, 2020, yiou automobile released the expected report on China’s charging infrastructure development 2020-2025, hoping to predict the future market development through the analysis of the development status of the charging infrastructure industry at this key time node, so as to provide direction and reference for the development of China’s charging infrastructure industry.
In the future, the development of charging service market will develop in the direction of interoperability, car network association assimilation and intelligence. In terms of quantity, with the expansion of interconnection scale, information sharing will be more sufficient, and enterprises are expected to improve the utilization rate of single pile, so as to realize profitability; At the power level, in the future, the vehicle network collaboration will make the business model fall into the market and bring new profit points; At the traffic level, with the integration of Internet elements, the charging pile will realize intelligent upgrading and increase value-added services.
01 charging infrastructure enters a new stage
Electrification is the general trend, and global auto enterprises have shown unprecedented enthusiasm in the layout of electrification.
In China, new energy vehicles are ushering in a market-oriented accelerated growth period. With the further reduction of power battery cost and the appearance of scale effect of new energy vehicles, the market demand is gradually stimulated. At present, the TCO (total cost of ownership) of new energy vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles in the operating vehicle scenario, and will be better than that of fuel vehicles in the private vehicle scenario around 2024.
Yiou automobile believes that the market scale of new energy vehicles will continue to grow in the next five years, and with the help of new infrastructure, the construction of charging infrastructure will usher in a new round of development. In the next few years, the new vehicle pile ratio will continue to decrease. Within 5 years, the vehicle pile ratio is expected to reach 2:1. In the long run, the development goal of vehicle pile ratio of 1:1 is also expected to be realized slowly.
Favorable policies and capital are accelerating.
After 2020, local subsidy policies will continue to be implemented, and investment in new infrastructure will continue to take shape. With multiple advantages, there is huge room for improvement in the construction of charging piles.
According to the guidance on accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure issued by the State Council, 150000 public charging piles are expected to be added in 2020, including 60000 public DC piles and 90000 public AC piles; About 300000 private piles will be added; 8000 public charging stations will be added.
According to the data released by China electric vehicle charging infrastructure promotion alliance, the domestic charging infrastructure increased by 122000 units in the first seven months of this year, with a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%, and the overall charging infrastructure maintained a low growth level. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate of charging pile construction will decline abnormally throughout the year.
In terms of growth rate, yiou automobile predicts that the overall growth rate of charging pile ownership will remain at about 43% from 2021 to 2024. The draft of the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) mentioned that the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 25% of the sales of new vehicles in 2025. It is expected that the number of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 21 million in 2025. At that time, the scale of charging infrastructure market will also rise.
From the perspective of market pattern, the Matthew effect of market pattern has initially appeared. Yiou automobile predicts that the national market concentration will intensify in the future, and small and medium-sized operators will continue to emerge in low-line cities. As small and medium-sized operators have small investment, focus on operation and concentrated users, there are not a few who can make profits. Therefore, small and medium-sized operators still have a lot of living space in the future. Compared with the national CR8, small and medium-sized operators will have room to grow in the sinking market with the popularity of new energy vehicles in low-level cities.
From the perspective of public charging pile pattern, high-power charging, wireless charging and power exchange will become the main force in the future. At present, the distribution of public piles shows that AC slow charging piles are more than DC fast charging piles. Due to the low cost of AC slow charging piles, the layout of AC slow charging piles is more conducive for charging operators to win in scale in the initial construction stage. However, from the operator’s data, the utilization rate of DC fast charging pile in public is significantly higher than that of AC slow charging pile.
From the perspective of market players, players tend to diversify and cross domain cooperation increases. Driven by the new infrastructure policy, the charging pile industry has attracted much attention. Hardware manufacturers represented by Huawei, Internet enterprises represented by Ali and energy enterprises represented by Ningde era use their own advantages to enter the charging pile market, promote business model innovation and technological progress, and solve some pain points in the industry. However, it also has a certain impact on the existing industrial pattern, intensifies market competition and speeds up the process of survival of the fittest.
Overall, the admission of new players injects vitality into the charging pile industrial chain ecology, which is conducive to complementary advantages between operators and innovation of cooperation mode, so as to deepen the integration of industrial chain and provide users with more efficient and convenient services. At the same time, from the perspective of operation, this will also improve the profitability of operators to a certain extent.
02 development direction of charging service market
At present, the charging service market has initially formed a certain scale and pattern, but the profitability problem has always plagued the industry.
At present, according to the financial data of several enterprises, only one special call disclosed in the 2019 financial report that its new energy vehicle charging ecological network business achieved a profit of 570 million yuan. From the current situation, the charging pile industry has changed from horse racing enclosure to fine operation. According to yiou automobile, it is a key node for the charging pile to be included in the new infrastructure in 2020. After that, the industry will upgrade in three directions: interoperability, car network association assimilation and intelligence.
First, from the perspective of business model, participants are actively building a new ecosystem of connectivity. With the promotion of new energy vehicles and the improvement of the layout of charging infrastructure, the improvement of information level and the continuous iterative upgrading of interconnection standards, many large domestic operators have opened and shared their own charging platforms, gradually realizing the resource sharing among charging infrastructure. Consumers can choose the services of multiple operators on the platform, The location and real-time status of the charging pile can be viewed, and the charging efficiency and experience can be improved.
In this way, the charging third-party service platform has become the hub for the interconnection of charging infrastructure. It reverses the public charging facility data of charging operators to each operator platform and other traffic platforms, so that any access party user can use its products and complete charging services in all access party charging facilities.
Vehicle network collaboration can change the current situation of disorderly charging and promote the emergence of new business models. At present, the charging transaction is limited to the owner’s payment of electricity; After the commercialization of V2G, electric vehicles can participate in the auxiliary service market, carry out paid frequency and peak shaving, feed the power grid, and both owners and charging operators can make money through this.
In the future, as the number of new energy vehicles continues to rise and the load pressure of the power grid increases, the charging mode of electric vehicles will no longer be dominated by disorderly charging. (disorderly charging: that is, charging at any time, anywhere and randomly, which is easy to lead to centralized charging of a large number of electric vehicles during the peak load of the power grid, bringing challenges to the power generation, transmission and distribution system). The charging pile can play a regulatory role between them, and the coordination between electric vehicle and power grid can be realized by orderly charging or two-way charging and discharging (V2G).
However, the feasibility of orderly charging is higher in the short term, and the commercialization of V2G takes time. From the application scenarios of vehicle network collaboration explored in China, the number of new energy vehicles with discharge function and two-way charging piles in the market is limited, and it is difficult for users to participate in the discharge interaction. In addition, in China, the user side has limited arbitrage space by using the peak valley price difference, so it is difficult to realize the economy of V2G. Therefore, yiou automobile believes that V2G is still on the eve of large-scale commercialization in the next five years.
Yiou automobile predicts that by 2030, with the decline of battery cost, the economy of V2G will gradually appear. In particular, V2G may provide more charge and discharge power than orderly charging. Therefore, V2G can provide more economic benefits after overcoming the equipment input cost and battery depreciation cost.
With the development of intelligence and informatization, the charging pile will also evolve from a simple “charging socket” to a “smart terminal”. Under the intelligent networked vehicle system, as the interface of new energy vehicles, the charging pile carries current, information flow and capital flow from its component composition, making the digitization of vehicle content possible. Therefore, the charging pile will become a natural entrance to promote the networking of new energy vehicles.
At that time, the charging pile will not only be a charging interface, but also have intelligent attributes matching with automatic driving, automatic charging and automatic parking, or carry more humanized service functions, or combine with living and entertainment facilities to become an important node of smart city and automobile network.
Editor in charge: Tzh