Recently, A-share panel plate performance is strong, LCD products continue to rise in price is an important driver. “Performance began to cash,” a large buyer said bluntly, “panel prices stable at the current level is enough.” Meanwhile, the rise in share price is related to the expected volume of new display technology Mini / microled next year. Industry insiders pointed out that although the new display technology has a number of advantages that LCD can not compete with, the mainstream display technology used in TV, notebook and other products will still be LCD, which is hard to shake in this year.
Therefore, the rise and fall of LCD price is still the strongest factor disturbing the financial statements of panel manufacturers. Compared with LCD, qd-oled, OLED, micro led and other technologies are difficult to occupy an advantage in terms of capacity scale, industrial chain integrity and cost. These technologies are positioned in the high-end market, representing the future development trend, and panel manufacturers need to pay attention to them.
Higher than expected
Since June, TV panel prices have continued to rise, especially since the second half of the year.
According to the price data released by Qunzhi consulting in late November, Founder Securities Electronic Industry Analyst Tao Yinzhi estimated that as of December 2020, the LCDTV panel price below 55 inches had an average increase of 70% compared with the low point in May this year, with a record range increase. 65 inches and 75 inches, driven by the supply of domestic 10.5/11 generation production line, the price increase is not as good as that of products under 55 inches, but the corresponding increases are 34% and 17% respectively, which are expected to be above the profit level.
According to the price trend chart obtained by China Securities Journal from Jibang Consulting Co., Ltd., after this round of price increase, the price waterlines of the mainstream panel sizes of 32 inch, 55 inch and 65 inch LCDTV respectively rose to the price regions in April 2018, may 2018 and February 2019.
Several analysts of Qunzhi consulting told the China Securities Journal that the price rise of mobile phone LCD panel is mainly reflected in the low-end LCD display screen, and the price rise has been around 30% since June. The mainstream module of monitor (monitor, excluding industrial use) increased by about 15% in the same period, while the LCD panel increased by 50% in the same period; the low-end TN technology products of notebook increased by more than 10% in the same period, and other mainstream iPS technology products increased by 5% – 10%.
Business continues to improve
Since the third quarter, the TV panel market has recovered substantially, and the operating profit margin of panel manufacturers has continued to improve. Tao Yinzhi said that in the third quarter, the world’s major panel manufacturers entered the operating profit state. Considering the lower cost of domestic manufacturers, it is expected that the profit margin of domestic panel manufacturers is expected to lead the industry in the fourth quarter.
Specifically, LG display made profits in the third quarter after six consecutive quarters of operating losses; Samsung display’s panel operating profit margin improved first in the second quarter due to the reduction of LCD capacity supply and the continued promotion of small-size OLED products; BOE and TCL Huaxing both started to turn positive in the second quarter.
In the first three quarters of this year, TCL technology’s large-size panels were fully sold and produced, with a sales area of 20.71 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, and the corresponding revenue of 20.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%; the sales area of small and medium-sized panels was 970000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and the corresponding revenue (including Huaxian) was 12.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.
BOE a achieved an operating revenue of 101.687 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 18.63% over the same period last year, and its net profit attributable to its parent company was 2.476 billion yuan, an increase of 33.67% over the same period last year. Among them, in the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 40.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.04%, a record high; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.340 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 629.30%.
Looking forward to next year, BOE said that the stimulation of large-scale TV and sports events will continue to drive the growth of demand, and the it demand brought by the fields of telecommuting and education will continue to rise, which will further consume the production capacity; on the supply side, the new production capacity is limited, and it is expected that the overall panel supply and demand will remain in a state of balance or tight balance throughout the year.
LCD has obvious competitive advantage
In the first half of this year, LG display and Samsung display successively announced that they would withdraw from the LCD market before the end of the year (the plan was delayed). From the product technology route, LCD is a relatively mature display technology, still has enough vitality. Industry insiders pointed out that its application maturity in the TV market is high, and its cost has obvious competitive advantages compared with other display technologies.
CITIC believes that with the transfer of LCD panels to Chinese mainland, the LCD panel industry chain is becoming more and more perfect. Upstream materials (such as LCD, polarizer, glass substrate, target, etc.), middle processing and manufacturing (cleaning equipment, etching equipment), subsequent processes (cutting, circuit boards, backlight module assembly) have basically been replaced by localization.
Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi consulting, told China Securities News, “judging from the global ranking of large-size LCD panel shipping area, after the adjustment of Korean manufacturers, BOE ranked first and TCL Huaxing ranked fourth. After the complete withdrawal of the South Korean factory from LCD, BOE’s production capacity will still increase slightly in 2022, accounting for 23% – 24% of the global production capacity. “
However, Hanchang did not completely withdraw from the TV industry, but chose a new track. “At present, the production cost of LG white OLED is still high, mainly due to the difficulty of large-scale evaporation process to improve yield, followed by the large loss of organic light-emitting materials. In theory, Samsung qd-oled technology is better than white light OLED, but the capital expenditure of the production line is too large, the material depreciation cost is high, and the competitiveness is limited. ” Tao Yinzhi said that focusing on the display improvement scheme of miniled backlight, the upstream LED industry foundation has matured, but it still needs to wait for the process maturity to improve and drive down the cost.
Editor in charge ajx