The fourteenth five year plan for renewable energy development in China is under intense preparation, which will determine the development trend of renewable energy in the next five years. In view of the energy transformation that China is vigorously promoting, in the “fourteenth five year plan” period, if we want to increase the proportion of non fossil energy, we will mainly rely on photovoltaic and wind power. In terms of the achievements of photovoltaic industry in recent years, the future of photovoltaic has come!
1、 Photovoltaic is the type of power generation with the fastest cost reduction in recent 10 years
From 2009 to 2019, the electricity cost of PV will drop by 89%. In 2019, the average cost of photovoltaic power is 40 cents per kilowatt hour, which is one of the lowest cost of all kinds of power sources. In 2019, the price of photovoltaic bidding projects in Portugal and UAE has been lower than 2 cents / kWh, which is lower than 3.7 cents / kwh in Xinjiang, the province with the lowest benchmark price of coal-fired in China.
In 2019, the average cost of surface power station will be 4.55 yuan / W, and it is expected to be 3.8 yuan / W or even lower in 2020. In the future, the cost of photovoltaic will still drop at an average annual rate of 5-10%, and it will further drop to 2.62 yuan / W by 2025. Photovoltaic will become the cheapest energy in the world.
2、 Global photovoltaic enters the era of parity, and the demand is growing rapidly
The proportion of global photovoltaic power generation is still low, and it is estimated that it will account for less than 5%. Driven by affordable access to the Internet, it is estimated that in the next 30 years, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by nearly 13 times, with a cumulative installed capacity of 8440 gigawatts, with a compound annual growth rate of about 9%.
China’s non fossil energy development target: 15% of non fossil energy in 2020, no less than 20% in 2030 and no less than 50% in 2050. It is reported that major adjustments may be made in the 14th five year plan, and the proportion of renewable energy will be greatly increased.
The combination of affordable photovoltaic and energy storage will bring long-term and sustainable development power to the industry. It is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase by 368 gigawatts in 2025.
3、 The threshold of parity has passed, so there is no need to worry about demand
In 2020, the scale of affordable projects will reach 33 GW (the domestic installed capacity is expected to be 40-50 GW this year), with a year-on-year growth of 124%, of which Guangdong will reach 10.89 GW.
Compared with 2019, Hunan, Qinghai and other eight provinces will achieve “zero breakthrough” in affordable photovoltaic projects in 2020. According to the calculation of the average cost of photovoltaic and benchmark electricity price of coal in 2020, nearly 80% of China’s regions can achieve parity economy, and the rate of return can reach more than 8%. Among them, the areas with better economy of photovoltaic projects include Heilongjiang, Hainan, Jilin, Sichuan, etc. In addition to Chongqing, the cost of per kilowatt hour power of PV parity projects in all regions of the country has been lower than the local coal price.
Previously, the main factors to suppress PV valuation were the decline of subsidy policy, which affected the installed capacity, and the impact of new technology iteration on the industry pattern. In the general trend of parity, the marginal impact of policy subsidies has been reduced to zero, and the cost reduction caused by technology iteration has become the core driving force to promote the development of the industry. The uncertainty of industry policy disturbance and technology iteration is gradually eliminating, and the industry pattern will be more clear and stable in the future.
4、 Global photovoltaic industry: China’s leading concentration continues to increase
By the end of 2019, the production capacity of each link of China’s photovoltaic industry chain will take an absolute lead in the world, with the silicon wafer segment accounting for up to 94%. There is no doubt that the core technology of photovoltaic is in China, and the best companies are in China.
According to public information statistics, from the beginning of the year to the end of August, 49 domestic photovoltaic enterprises announced plans to expand production, involving a total investment of nearly 300 billion yuan, and the capacity scale of each link is about 664 gigawatts.
From the perspective of industrial chain links, batteries and components are still the main force in expanding production, especially batteries, which are far higher than other links in terms of capacity and investment.
In fact, the arrival of parity forces enterprises to innovate continuously, update iterative technology rapidly, and replace old capacity with new capacity rapidly. After a round of reshuffle in the photovoltaic industry, the leading enterprises make “the strong are always strong” by continuously increasing their production capacity, while the second and third tier enterprises are still following, and the competition in all aspects can only become increasingly fierce.
Production capacity and technology will become the main grip in this “fight”. From the current point of view, the continuous improvement of industry concentration in the future will become a general situation, and the market share of head enterprises will also increase.
Editor in charge ajx