In December 2020, China Automobile Industry Association and China automobile strategic development research center of Tianjin University released the medium and long term forecast of China automobile market (2020-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the forecast report). Among them, the “forecast report” points out that China’s auto market will show a slow growth trend in 2021, the auto market will also grow steadily in the next five years, and the auto sales volume is expected to reach 30 million in 2025.

According to the target of “by 2025, China’s new energy vehicles will account for 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles” set in the new energy vehicle industry development plan, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 6 million in 2025.

In 2021, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to exceed 21 million

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, from January to November 2020, the production and sales of China’s automobile industry exceeded 22 million vehicles. When it comes to the reasons for the substantial growth in sales volume, Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Association, said that in November this year, the strategy of expanding domestic demand and various policies to promote consumption continued to make efforts, and the domestic efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development achieved remarkable results.

Based on this good development trend, Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Association, predicted that the sales volume of domestic automobile market this year is expected to be 25 million, and the year-on-year decline is expected to narrow to 2%, better than expected.

However, facing 2021, China Automobile Association said that due to the return to the ideal, “in 2021, China’s automobile market will usher in development opportunities, including the sustained and stable recovery of the macro-economy, the continued introduction of policies to stimulate automobile consumption by local governments, the continued good effect of China’s epidemic prevention and control, and the continued enthusiasm of enterprises for sales promotion. However, we must also clearly realize that the international situation is not good The complex situation and unstable overseas epidemic situation will also have an impact on China’s automobile market. ” Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, said when he released “China automobile market forecast report in 2021” on behalf of China Automobile Association.

Considering the above factors, CAAC believes that in 2021, China’s total automobile sales are expected to reach 26.3 million, with a year-on-year growth of about 4%, including 21.7 million passenger cars, 4.6 million commercial vehicles, and 1.8 million new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of about 40%.

Similarly, in view of the prediction of China’s automobile sales in 2021, Lu Yan, director of GAC Automotive Research Institute, published relevant prediction data at the “2020 China International Summit on automotive powertrain electrification”. He said that from the perspective of the whole passenger car market, the total sales volume of GAC is expected to reach about 20 million in 2020 and 21 million in 2021, with a relatively low growth rate. However, the development of new energy vehicles will enter the second high-speed development period. This prediction is basically consistent with that of China Auto Association.

At the beginning of the 14th five year plan, there will be 6 million new energy vehicles in 2025

At the end of the 13th five year plan and the beginning of the 14th five year plan, the next 15 years of automobile development plans have been launched recently, first “energy saving and new energy vehicle technology route 2.0”, and then “new energy vehicle industry development plan”. From the industrial and national policy level, it is clearly proposed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will account for 20% of the total sales volume by 2025 The development direction of automobile electrification in China is unshakable.

According to the prediction of “China’s total automobile sales will reach 30 million in 2025” given in the “prediction report”, 20% of new energy vehicles will account for 6 million by 2025.

It is worth noting that, according to the “2021 China auto market forecast report” issued by China Auto Association, it is estimated that the total sales volume of vehicles in 2020 will reach 25.3 million, of which the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 1.3 million, accounting for about 5.14%. Whether it is with the annual sales of 6 million or 20% of new energy vehicles, the proportion is far from.

At the same time, it is a global epidemic situation that has not yet been completely controlled, the factors of instability in the global automobile supply chain are increasing, and China’s automobile industry will still face many challenges, such as the complex and changeable international environment. Among them, the news of “chip supply shortage leading to the shutdown of many domestic automobile enterprises” which is the most popular topic in the industry recently is just the tip of the iceberg of the development bottleneck of the domestic automobile industry.

A cruel fact is that at present, more than 70% of China’s automobile production equipment is imported, about 80% of engine and gearbox equipment is imported, 90% of automobile R & D, testing, testing and other equipment is imported, and almost all special functional materials are imported. Therefore, industrial materials, control systems, special manufacturing equipment and other fields closely related to precision control, precision manufacturing and precision measurement are the main short boards in the upstream of the automobile industry chain.

The late start of local parts enterprises, hollow core technology, lack of talent reserve, the bottleneck of battery safety, service life, endurance and cost still exist, and the infrastructure for the use of electric vehicles can not keep up with other factors, which are the important bottlenecks restricting the development of China’s automobiles, including new energy vehicles.

It’s no wonder that Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of industry and information technology, yelled at the regular policy briefing of the State Council: “this is a very difficult goal to achieve.”.

New energy vehicle market is ready to develop, independent industry chain should not miss the opportunity again

Clear goals, how to complete is the most headache for all enterprises.

It is worth affirming that from the perspective of the overall environment, in 2020, driven by the national and local government’s Yiying automobile promotion fees and sales activities of new energy vehicles, China’s new energy vehicles have shown rapid growth since the second quarter. Luo Junjie, director of the first Department of equipment industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology, revealed that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the countryside in the past four months has exceeded 180000.

Sales volume, sales volume of new energy vehicles

Since July, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has increased rapidly

Facing 2021, Bai Hua, a second level researcher of the automobile development department of the first equipment industry department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that the Ministry of industry and information technology will continue to promote new energy vehicles to the countryside. At the same time, Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, revealed at a regular press conference that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on promoting the expansion of consumption of key commodities, encourage relevant regions to optimize the measures for restricting the purchase of automobiles, and carry out a new round of automobile going to the countryside and exchanging the old for the new. This means that, from the national level, a new round of cars to the countryside will also start.

In addition, the central government has explicitly extended subsidies for new energy vehicles and purchase subsidies to the end of 2022. With the continuous promotion of subsidies, taxes, charging facilities construction and “double points” policies, the promotion of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to grow rapidly from 2023 to 2025.

All of the above are the foundation of the environment to support the second wave of high-speed growth of new energy vehicles.

However, in the face of the coming period of rapid development, Wang Binggang, director of the technical committee of the national electric passenger vehicle technology innovation alliance, called: “the industrial chain should make good deployment, and don’t miss the opportunity.”.

He believes that the impact of such rapid development on the industrial chain should be huge, and the current market preparation is still insufficient. Many investors and entrepreneurs see the vehicle factory in their eyes, but they do not see the huge industrial chain behind the vehicle. He further pointed out that we should learn from the lessons of the internal combustion engine industry, increase the independent R & D and industrial development of electric drive system, pay attention to the R & D of key materials, core parts / components, MCU and software architecture, and form an independent and controllable industrial chain.

Sales volume, sales volume of new energy vehicles

“Energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0” points out 9 major technology directions; photo source: ppt screenshot of Technology Roadmap

Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and Secretary General of China electric vehicle 100 people’s Association, also said, “under the current new development pattern of domestic large circulation and international and domestic” double circulation “, the issue of automobile supply chain has become a crucial topic related to the development of automobile industry. In addition, automobile is in the key stage of “new four modernizations” transformation, and we should pay more attention to the development trend and future trend of the supply chain. “

He believes that if we do not grasp the solution to the problems existing in the current supply chain, we will miss the opportunity given by the reform to strengthen China’s automobile industry. We should strengthen the chain from the perspective of strategic planning, technological research and industrial cooperation. The suggestions include: to formulate the development strategy of auto parts according to the requirements of auto transformation on the supply chain and parts under the new development pattern, especially to pay attention to the new supply chain development strategy as the focus of industrial development; to establish the cooperation platform of the supply chain; to organize the new research mechanism for the key “bottleneck” problems; and cross-border cooperation Make.

As Chen Qingtai, chairman of China electric vehicle 100 people’s Association, said, “the bottom of an automobile power is a component power. Without powerful components, a car just floats on the cloud and can’t land on the ground.” Only by making full efforts in the aspects of chain fixation, chain mending and chain strengthening of the automobile industry, can we really turn the short board into an opportunity and a long board, truly promote the total sales volume of China’s automobile to exceed 30 million, and continuously expand the new energy automobile market.

Editor in charge: yyx

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