With the three major operators starting commercial 5g networks and successively releasing 5g network tariff packages, there is no dispute about the 5g trend in 2020.
Miao Wei, Minister of industry and information technology, said at the National Conference on industry and information technology: we should steadily promote the construction of 5g network, deepen co construction and sharing, and strive to cover 5g network in all prefecture level cities by the end of 2020. Domestic smartphone manufacturers have passed a “dismal” 2019, and 5g mobile phones will become a new engine for increment. The acceleration of 5g network construction in China means that a new 5g replacement tide is coming.
Not long ago, in an interview, masichi dengban, CEO of solar induced power, a Japanese smart machine ceramic capacitor manufacturer, predicted that Huawei may sell 100 million smart machines supporting 5g in China alone next year.
Lenovo Yu Chengdong said in the letter to all employees of Huawei’s consumer business in the 2020 new year that “in the past few years, the consumer business has continuously exceeded the annual business objectives.” In 2020, with the maturity of 5g technology and the significant improvement of 5g base station coverage, Huawei is bound to continue to make efforts on 5g smart phones.
Can the small target of 100 million units be completed in 2020? Tianhao analyzed through three variables.
The first variable: dividend of 5g large-scale commercial in 2020
Since the Ministry of industry and information technology officially issued 5g commercial license to the three major operators and China Radio and television in early June 2019, and the three major operators officially released 5g package in November 2019, China began to enter the first year of 5g commercial.
According to the public report of patent data company iplytics, as of April 2019, Huawei has the necessary patents for 1554 family 5g standards, accounting for the first in the world. The four Chinese companies, including Huawei, ZTE, oppo and China Telecom Research Institute of science and technology, together have 36% of the 5g standard patents in the world. From 2G to 5g, China’s communication technology has risen rapidly, marking the arrival of the 5g era in which China plays a leading role.
When it comes to 5g, we must talk about the four important characteristics of 5g network: high speed, ubiquitous network, low power consumption and low delay.
Theoretically, the peak download speed of 5g network can reach 20GB / S; For example, in the medical field, cloud games, 4K / 8K live / on demand, VR / AR and other new technology applications will usher in new development with the popularization of 5g network.
5g’s revolution in 4G is completely different from 4G’s revolution in 3G. The latter is only optimization. The former is an overall reconstruction. 5g is a revolutionary breakthrough, breaking many barriers and creating many seemingly impossible possibilities.
Taking the application of 5g technology in the medical field as an example, 5g intensive care unit, UAV drug delivery service, online consultation… Through “5g + medical health”, it helps to gradually change people’s medical habits and enable patients to run less, see a doctor more conveniently and have a better medical experience. 5g technology is not only reflected in the improvement of speed, but also greatly improves the capacity and efficiency of information transmission. It can realize expert inspection and evaluation of patients as face-to-face in the process of remote diagnosis and treatment, real-time and dynamic physiological index monitoring of patients, and timely early warning of abnormal events. However, this is only a small part of the application of 5g in the medical field.
It can be seen that 5g network will “make great achievements” in 2020 and for a longer period of time in the future.
On December 23, 2019, the National Conference on industry and information technology proposed: “strive to achieve 5g network coverage in all prefecture level cities by the end of 2020”. With the gradual laying of 5g base stations to surrounding cities, it will undoubtedly further promote the pace of 5g commerce. In 2020, the large-scale commercial use of 5g will bring huge market dividends. In the field of smart phone market, Huawei 5g mobile phone can achieve small goals as long as it can maintain the market influence of last year.
Canalys data show that the overall shipments in the Chinese market still decreased slightly year-on-year, but there has been a slight improvement in Q3. In this quarter, Huawei (including glory) achieved a high growth of 66%, shipped 41.5 million units, and the domestic market accounted for more than 40%. This rising momentum has a good gain for Huawei’s competition in the 5g era.
The second variable: the domestic 5g mobile phone war will drive the purchase enthusiasm
The curtain of 5g switch tide has kicked off in advance. At the end of 2019, Huawei, Xiaomi and ov have successively released a series of 5g flagship mobile phones.
For users living in cities where 5g base stations have been built in the front line, they have tasted the 5g era earlier than most people.
So far, Huawei (glory) has launched five 5g models, which means that the R & D cost of subsequent 5g mobile phones will be greatly reduced, and more time and energy can be freed to polish the system, screen, lens, product process and mold, so as to further expand the product difference.
According to the data in the report released by China information and Communication Research Institute, in November 2019, the overall shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 34.842 million, including 5.074 million 5g mobile phones. Compared with October, the shipment of 5g mobile phones in November increased by 103.46% month on month.
From 72000 5g mobile phones in July to 8.355 million in November, the shipment of 5g mobile phones increased explosively, far higher than the industry’s expectations.
At present, the price of 5g mobile phones has begun to explore within 2000 yuan. For example, the 8 + 128G version of Hongmi K30 5g released by Xiaomi only sells for 2599 yuan, and then the X50 8 + 128G, the first 5g smartphone released by realme, only sells for 2499 yuan, constantly lowering the price threshold of 5g smartphones, and the competition in 5g smartphone market has entered a warm-up stage.
In 2019, as the first year of 5g network business, leaders such as Huawei, Xiaomi and ov took the lead in playing the 5g brand and launching a series of 5g smart phones. Under the vigorous publicity of advertising, more and more consumers will be affected to consider buying 5g smart phones. When the whole mobile phone consumption forms a “5g collective consciousness”, whether the mobile phone supports 5g will become an important trade-off factor for consumers to buy new phones.
With the increase of 5g base station construction coverage, operators are bound to speed up and reduce fees on 5g packages in the future. As a rational party, most consumers will actively embrace “affordable” 5g mobile phones and packages. Put aside the “early taste” psychology, 5g smartphones have “a little more” than 4G phones, which is an advantage, and the price competition will be more intense.
As the “ancestor” of smart phones, iPhone, whether Apple will release 5g mobile phones at its 2020 new product launch is still a suspense. If Apple can join this scuffle, it will further consolidate the trend of 5g mobile phones, and 5g will become the standard of mainstream flagship phones. When the whole market is full of confidence in 5g, it will undoubtedly stimulate the vitality and enthusiasm of the whole mobile phone market.
At the same time, at present, various mobile phone manufacturers are opening more and more offline physical stores by integrating existing resources. Brands such as Huawei (glory), Xiaomi, OV and Suning Tesco have built many authorized stores, which has brought positive factors to the penetration of 5g into the whole society.
Taking Huawei as an example, facing the broad space of the offline market, by the end of 2019, it has opened nearly 2500 service stores, nearly 1500 municipal experience stores and nearly 3000 county-level experience stores. Huawei (glory) through online multi e-commerce platform + offline physical stores + overseas markets. Over 44 million flagship smartphones of mate and P series were shipped worldwide throughout the year. Consumers are more and more willing to spend more money on mobile phones, which is good news for the arrival of 5g mobile phones.
The whole society is inclined to the 5g era, which brings the second good for Huawei to achieve the goal of 100 million small units.
The third variable: Huawei 5g mobile phone matrix molding covers high, medium and low
So far, Huawei (glory) has in the high-end field of 5g mobile phones: mate20 x, mate30, mate30 pro and mate30 RS; In the middle end of 5g mobile phones, there are glory V30, V30 pro and nova6. The basic layout of Huawei high school has been formed.
With the price war of 5g mobile phone manufacturers, the price threshold of 5g mobile phones will be gradually lowered to less than 2000 yuan this year. In 2020, once the 5g mobile phone of Huawei (glory) 5g mobile phone under 2000 yuan is launched, it will form a full matrix coverage of high, medium and low end.
Samsung was affected by the explosion and fire accidents caused by battery defects in galaxy Note7, which led to the decline of users’ acceptance of Samsung in recent years. At present, Samsung’s influence in the Chinese market is much less than before. Although the product matrix is also promoted synchronously at the high, middle and low ends, it is difficult to form an effective barrier against Huawei.
As a “mobile phone weathervane”, the iPhone focuses on the high-end market. The pricing of 5g models released in 2020 may start from 10000. After all, cook has been trying to explore the pricing range of the iPhone. At present, OV and other brands are mainly in the high-end mobile phone market, while Xiaomi is in the high-end market. At present, it has only a good influence in the medium and low-end market. Only Huawei can realize the all-round layout of high-end, high-end and low-end.
A series of products such as mate, Nova and glory have been deeply recognized by consumers and have established a good reputation in the field of mobile phones.
Regardless of Huawei’s 5g R & D and chip construction, its innovation in different types of screens and zoom lenses such as special-shaped screen and waterfall screen has opened a certain gap with similar products.
In recent years, Huawei’s high investment in mobile phone research and development has achieved many technological breakthroughs. In addition, the excellent use experience has brought the third good for Huawei to achieve the small goal of 100 million mobile phones.
In 2020, Huawei’s 5g mobile phone sales will reach 100 million. Some people may say that this is “a fool’s dream”.
Yu Chengdong said in the letter to all employees of Huawei’s consumer business for the new year 2020 that “in 2019, the consumer business will maintain rapid growth and exceed the business objectives set at the beginning of the year! It is estimated that Huawei’s annual shipments of smart phones exceed 240 million, ranking second in the world. “
In 2019 alone, Huawei shipped 240 million smart phones. According to dengban Zhengyi’s prediction of 100 million, the realization may still be great.
In 2019, major mobile phone manufacturers are still releasing 4G mobile phones. In 2020, 5g mobile phone models will certainly account for more than half, which will force consumers to choose 5g mobile phones. Therefore, from these three variables, Huawei’s small target of 100 million 5g mobile phones in 2020 may not be just an “empty talk”.