Techweb reported on May 11. A few days ago, Guo Mingxuan, an analyst at Tianfeng securities, reported that the iPhone is expected to adopt Apple’s 5g baseband chip as soon as 2023, and Qualcomm will be forced to strive for more orders in the middle and low-end market to make up for the loss of Apple’s orders.


The report said that at that time, due to the significant improvement of supply shortage, MediaTek and Qualcomm’s bargaining power against brand manufacturers will be reduced, resulting in a significant increase in the competitive pressure in the medium and low-end market.


Guo Mingxuan said that the key to MediaTek’s 5g SOC advantage lies in close cooperation with TSMC, but Qualcomm will transfer orders to TSMC in 2021 and 2022, respectively, for medium and low-end (6nm) and high-end (4nm) 5g SOC, which is unfavorable to MediaTek’s production advantage. The report predicts that TSMC will ship 7325 and 6375 from Qualcomm in the second and third quarters of 2021, respectively, which will help Qualcomm recover its market share from MediaTek.


According to the report, MediaTek’s share price has reflected the increase of 5g SOC market share and ASP (average selling price). The challenges include:


·MediaTek’s 5g SOC market share has beat Qualcomm, reaching 50% – 55% in the first quarter of 2021, and is expected to increase slightly to 55% – 60% in the second quarter of 2021, but this also means that there is limited room for growth in the future. The report believes that no brand hopes that the market share of a single SOC supplier is too high.


·In terms of high-end SOC, MediaTek is still unable to replace Qualcomm. Apple will adopt its own baseband chip, which means MediaTek has no opportunity for new customers to drive growth.


·MediaTek’s production advantage will be gradually reduced due to Qualcomm’s return to TSMC.


The report also points out that Qualcomm’s share price has reflected the ASP improvement of 5g SOC, and the challenges include:


·5g can not drive the demand for Android high-end 5g mobile phones. In addition, it will lose the iPhone baseband chip order as soon as 2023, so it will be forced to compete with MediaTek in the medium and low-end market.


·TSMC’s bargaining power is higher than Qualcomm’s, so Qualcomm’s transfer of orders from Samsung wafer foundry to TSMC will be detrimental to profits.


·With the sluggish demand for 5g mobile phones and the improvement of supply shortage in the foreseeable future, Qualcomm may have to sacrifice profits to increase the market share of 5g SOC.


Affected by the news, Qualcomm’s share price fell 4.7% to $131.32 for the last time.


For the comprehensive report of electronic enthusiasts, please refer to Tianfeng international, gelonghui, etc. for reprint, please indicate the above source.

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