Electronic Enthusiasts Network (Text/Wu Zipeng) Recently, WM Motor submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchangelisting application,2021yearWM Motor's revenue was 4.743 billion yuan, with a lossfor8.2 billion RMB，Adjusted net loss was RMB 5.36 billion.From the sales data,2021Weimar MotorsElectric vehicle sales were 44,152 units, more than double from 2020.Does this mean that the more you sell, the more you lose?
Source: Hong Kong Stock Exchange
existHKEx discloses list of new batch of IPO applicationsThe day before, WM MotorCEO Shen Hui posted on Weibo, saying that there has been another round of price increases for automotive chips recently, and that the cost of chips for smart electric vehicles has exceeded that of battery packs.
This sentence can be regarded as one of the reasons for the loss of WM Motor.
Electric cars suffer from core shortages
At present, if the reason for lack of core is not considered, for general electric vehicles,The powertrain accounts for about 50% of the total cost, and the battery pack will account for 7 of the total cost of the power system6%about. Converted, an electric car costs about 38About % of the cost is on the battery pack, and some analysis reports indicate that it is about 4%.0%. That is to say, in the normal time when there is no shortage of cores, the power battery is the core component that accounts for the largest cost of electric vehicles at this stage.
However, at present, electric vehicle manufacturing suffers from a shortage of cores. Whether it is car companies purchasing chips for the development of functional modules, or purchasing related products from component suppliers, they can feel the pressure of rising chip prices.
In fact, not only WM Motor and Xiaopeng Motors complained about the lack of cores, but Bosch also mentioned the lack of cores many times, revealing a little helplessness in his words, only saying that it would do its best to ensure the supply. For example, in September last year, the media's investigation made all sectors of society hotly discuss the supply chaos of automobile chips. At that time, the "protagonist" of the incident wasBosch ESP (body stabilization system) chip, according to several auto company executives,Bosch ESP chipOriginally only needed 13Yuan/piece, but at that time, the quotations from dealers and the "black market" exceeded 1,000 yuan, and the highest even reached 4000Yuan/piece or more.
In response to this news,Bosch China Relevant Personsresponds, Bosch does not produce these chips, and Bosch China also needs to purchase them. Bosch has been actively maintaining communication with suppliers and customers, and is making every effort to ensure supply.
Recently, some channel sources revealed that due to the high price of automotive chips and the rise in logistics and energy costs,Bosch plans to raise product prices and is currently renegotiating contract negotiations with automakers.BoschAnnual Press and Results Conference, BoschChief Financial Officer Markus Forschneralso mentioned,"Not just the carenterprisePrices have to rise to pass on the pressure of rising costs, and suppliers like us have to do the same. "Shen HuiWeibo was just to talk about it, he wrote in his blog post, "Bosch's price increase is not a rumor, there are other Tier 1s. The price hikes are all essential chips.”
Which chips are used in cars
According to relevant research and performance display pictures of car companies, electric vehicles will roughly use these types of chips, power semiconductors, analog/power chips, processors/microcontrollers, sensors and storage devices, each type of chip on the car The role positioning is also very clear.
Power semiconductors are the core components of various types of new energy vehicles, including electric vehicles, which are linked to the core performance of the power system, and are necessary components for the battery system to power other functional units. For example, in the powertrain of an electric vehicle,The IGBT power module is the heart of the inverter，Share of the value of semiconductors in electric vehicle powertrainsExceed50%。while inbattery management system、Air conditioning control system, charging system, etc.，IGBTis also indispensable, such as during charging, IGBTparticipateConvert AC to DC and charge high voltage batteries. According to research, 15Among the about 10,000 A-class electric vehicles,The value of a bicycle IGBT is about 1000~2000 yuan, high-performance electric vehicle bicycles may use 4000I around yuanGBTmodule.
In addition to the traditional IGBT,CurrentlySiCDevices are also accelerating their entry into the automotive industry chain. compared to IGBT，SiCDevice haslow energy loss, high temperature resistance,switchThe advantages of high frequency and small package size, but due toThe cost of third-generation semiconductor substrates is relatively high, because there is a view that it is expected to 2026year or soSiCDevices will be fully rolled out in the automotive market, when800V high voltage platformor higher pressureVehicle voltagePlatforms will become the mainstream choice.
Electric vehicles are driven by electrical energy, and the usage rate of analog/power devices is definitely higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. The analog aspect is mainly automotive signal chain chips, including various isolation and interface chips. according toWSTSforecast, to 2022yearGlobal Analog ProductsSales are expected to reach$79.25 billion, of which the automotive-specific analog chips are expected to account for 16.6%, the largest downstream market. According to research data, the value of the isolation chip for electric vehicles is 400Yuan or so.
According to industry research data, the gap of power management chips in the automotive market is second only to MCUYes, it is the "second hardest hit area". At the same time, the power management chip is also considered to be the most widely used chip in the car. In electric vehicles, all functional units linked to electricity require power management devices, includingAutomotive powertrains, in-vehicle electronics and advanced driver assistance systemsWait. Due to insufficient supply in the automotive market, the price of automotive-grade power management chips has also risen, although not as much as MCUSo scary, but the average price is in the whole 2021Year also rose by 10%, basically it can be said that the car has 1 in this part0% cost increases. It is reported that currently in electric vehicles, the value of bicycle power management chips is 100Dollar-400between dollars, more than a gas bikearound $20The amount of value is at least several times higher.
Due to the improvement in the level of intelligence, electric vehicles haveCUAnd demand for other processors is also skyrocketing, MCUIt is also the most scarce device in the automotive market. At present, the automobile market has become MCUlargest end market. According to statistics from ICinsights, sales of automotive-grade MCUs will surge 23% in 2021 to $7.6 billion, 2022Year will continue to grow14%，2023annual growth16%, the market popularity can be said to continue unabated. At present, intelligent electric vehicles, bicycles MCUThe dosage has reached 300, compared with only 7 for traditional fuel vehicles5around.
With the intelligentization of cars, L2+/L3 level autonomous driving has become a rigid demand. According to the forecast data of iResearch, the production and sales volume of intelligent driving vehicles in China will exceed 20 million units in 2025, of which the number of L2+/L3 will exceed 50%. It is reported that,Tesla HW3.0The price of the chip is 190around US dollars.
And intelligence has greatly increased the demand for sensors in cars.According to Infineon forecast，The amount of sensors required for the L2 car is $160，To L4, L5 level car needs to increase to 970 US dollars, just the camera, expectedL4 and L5 carsJust need 8-12about one.according toNXPpredict,Future high-level autonomous vehicles,The number of millimeter-wave radars on a single vehicle will reach more than 5.
In addition, there are memory chips. As the amount of data generated by the intelligentization of automobiles becomes larger and larger, there is also a huge demand for memory chips.GB to TBlevel.
In general, the chip cost of the current electric vehicles with more advanced functions is already in4000Dollar-5000around the U.S. dollar, and may reach7600more than US dollars. According to the original industry forecast, it is expected that in 2030The annual chip cost will exceed the power system and become the largest cost expenditure, but the lack of cores and changes in the international situation seem to have accelerated this process. At present, many car companies and component suppliers are affected by the cost of chips. The layers are transmitted to the price of bicycles. There has been a wave of price increases by various car companies some time ago, but that wave is more due to the increase in battery costs, and it is inevitable that they will not be adjusted again for the chip.
Window period for domestic chips
The term "window period" is definitely not unfamiliar to domestic automotive chip manufacturers. When Infineon, Renesas Electronics,STAnd NXP and other companies car-grade MCUWhen there is a shortage of supply, people are talking about this topic, but judging from the current development situation, the window period of domestic automotive chips may have changed from the initial judgment. It is not a short window period, but a time span. longer opportunity.
why do you say so? From traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, we have seen that the demand for almost all electronic components has increased several times. Before that, all related companies' expansion plans were conservative, although each company is close to In the past few years, the investment in the automobile business has been increased, or the automobile business has been defined as the company's first major business direction, but almost no company's production capacity investment is planned according to several times of growth. The multiplication is already a very positive manufacturer. S, which has been "named" many times during the out-of-stock periodTFor example, according to the latest report, the company expects to double the overall production capacity of 300mm (12-inch) wafers in European factories between 2020 and 2025, and 20% of the company’s cost expenditure in 2021.11 in billion4billion for expansion.
According to the expected data of the increase in demand and the expansion of chip production capacity, 2022In the second half of the year, it is expected that the car core shortage will slow down, but if governments and consumers choose to support new energy vehicles because of oil supply and other issues, and L2+/L3Level automatic driving function is further popularized, then it is expected to reach 2023There will still be a shortage of automotive-grade chips in 2019.
This is not to reduce the momentum of domestic auto chip manufacturers, but to make longer-term plans, from the previous goal of breaking into the auto market in the chaos, to deeply binding with customers in the auto industry. Automotive-grade chips have higher thresholds and more complicated verification processes.Reliability, Consistency, Safety, Stability and LongevityThere are strict requirements in various aspects, which leads to the existence of automotive-grade chips.Long product development and certification cycle and large investment scalesalient features.
The imbalance between supply and demand has led to market chaos, but domestic automotive chip manufacturers cannot afford to be in chaos.CUManufacturers, whose products have entered the pre-installation market, but mainly focus on the application around the body, then these manufacturers should plan to promote cooperation with customers in the core power system and main functional units to expand the application scope and application of the products depth. And like Zhaoyi Innovation and Fudan Microelectronics, etc.CUManufacturers should continue to do their own research and development of automotive-grade chips. Industrial-grade products are not a normal situation. The path forward for other types of domestic auto chip makers is similar.
In the foreseeable future, the chip-based electronic system will surely become the core device with the largest cost in the car. The demand gap released in the process is huge, and this gap will not be closed all at once. The special attributes of automobiles require that parts and components ultimately win with quality and performance. This is the moat of traditional international manufacturers, and domestic auto chip manufacturers have to cross this river. The same high-quality products are the stones that can be stepped on.