1、 High quality development, the general trend is upward

General automation is fully involved in the process of technological transformation and upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase in the manufacturing industry, which is in line with the characteristics of the current era of high-quality development. Manufacturing investment is an economic decision made by the main body of enterprises based on their own business conditions, which constitutes the demand source of various mechanical equipment enterprises. Therefore, from a micro point of view, its investment rhythm basically matches the demand and profit of mechanical enterprises. China will remain the center of the world’s manufacturing industry for a long time in the future. With the gradual transfer of some labor-intensive low-end manufacturing industries, the gradual emergence of high-quality talents in China, the deepening of the degree of industrial manufacturing automation and informatization, and the process of reducing cost and increasing efficiency in China’s manufacturing industry is also continuously promoted. On the whole, China is in the initial stage of demand, the downstream market is broad, and is gradually expanding new business areas, showing a higher development speed.

At present, the investment willingness of major downstream industries has improved. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total profit of 3C manufacturing industry increased by 3.1% year-on-year in 2019; The total profit of automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 15.9%, but the decline gradually narrowed. The recovery of downstream manufacturing industry led to the recovery of general automation industry. In December 19, the output growth rate of industrial robots was 15.3%. Later, affected by the epidemic, the output of industrial robots decreased by 19.4% in the first two months of 2020. This part of the demand is expected to be released after the epidemic is controlled.

Analysis on the overall development trend of China's industrial robot industry

2、 Intelligent equipment: the penetration rate is improved and the application scenarios are gradually broadened.

According to IFR data, the compound growth rate of China’s industrial robot sales from 2013 to 2018 reached 33.3%. The rapid development of the Chinese market is due to the benefits of “machine replacement”, the development of industrial Internet technology and the rapid growth of domestic economy. From 2009 to 2018, the sales of industrial robots in China increased 27 times. The density of industrial robots in China is still far from traditional industrial powers such as South Korea, Japan and Germany. According to IFR data, the density of industrial robots in China in 2018 was 140 sets / 1000 people, while that in Japan, South Korea and Germany were 327, 774 and 338 sets / 1000 people respectively. The Korean industrial system is derived from the automobile and semiconductor industry, the German industrial system is derived from the automobile industry, and the Japanese industrial system is derived from the automobile and machinery industry. The above industries are industries with relatively high automation level and high robot density. China has a whole industrial chain, and the automobile industry and 3C industry are only a part of the domestic manufacturing industry; In traditional industries such as textile and coal, due to the very mature technology, the penetration rate of industrial robots is low. In emerging industries such as new energy lithium battery and photovoltaic, industrial robots are still cutting into the manufacturing process, and the penetration rate is in a process of steady growth. In terms of production efficiency, there is still a big gap between China and the world-class level. According to our calculation, the per capita output value of China’s manufacturing industry in 2018 was 1.05 million yuan, only about 1 / 3 of the level of the United States in the same period. With the gradual development of new technologies and the gradual implementation of new application scenarios represented by lasers, a new round of technology substitution will bring new growth opportunities to automation enterprises.

3、 System integration: with Chinese characteristics in the new era, cross industry to enhance competitiveness.

At present, the penetration of automation products in China is reflected in various industries. In addition to automobiles and 3C, household appliances, food and beverage, medical treatment, etc. are in full bloom, and some companies have achieved cross domain and multi industry development. We are optimistic that integrators will take the lead in achieving breakthroughs, mainly because: 1. The market space for system integration is relatively higher; 2. Under the scissors difference effect, the penetration rate of robots increases rapidly; 3. Price war fluctuations have relatively little impact on integrator profits. In addition, the characteristics of the times such as industrial Internet and 5g have not only improved China’s industrial level in software, but also promoted the manufacturing industry to carry out intelligent transformation and expand the demand of the automation market.

4、 Individual stock analysis

Esten

Industrial chain integration

Easton’s business covers everything from core components and motion control systems. Since the listing of the company, mergers and acquisitions around the robot industry have mainly followed three main lines: 1. Strengthen the layout of parts, acquire trio and transform to a high-end motion control solution provider; 2. Robot intelligent layout, the company acquired Barrett and Euclid, Italy, and mastered the machine vision technology and the production of rehabilitation medical robots; 3. Expand system integration, acquire plex, Nanjing Fengyuan, m.a.i., Yangzhou Shuguang and Hubei robots, and enter the military industry market and mainland market. The acquisition targets of the company are highly technical, pay attention to the strategic synergy of the target business, or highly complementary to the main business, or conducive to market development.

Tosda

Automation solution service provider

Since 2011, it has successfully launched rectangular coordinate robots, multi joint robots and various automation solutions, realizing the transformation from a single equipment manufacturer to an automation solution service provider. At present, the company’s main products and services include industrial robots and automation application systems, injection molding machine supporting equipment and automatic feeding systems, intelligent energy and environmental management systems. According to the disclosure of the annual report, the above three businesses accounted for 60.3%, 19.6% and 20.1% of the total revenue in 2018 respectively. In the robot industry chain, the company continues to increase the R & D of core parts and technologies such as controller and servo system, and continuously enhance the competitiveness of products. In 2020, the demand of the electronics industry represented by 5g mobile phones is expected to usher in rapid growth. The company’s transformation key customer strategy is expected to fully benefit from the growth of multi industry capital expenditure cycle, superimposed with the recovery of the overall investment growth of downstream manufacturing industry, which is expected to fully release the profit elasticity.

Responsible editor; zl

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