Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

At present, the imperfect public medical management system, high medical cost, few channels and low coverage are perplexing the people’s livelihood. In particular, the medical problems represented by “low efficiency medical system, poor quality medical services, difficult and expensive medical treatment” are the main focus of social attention. The overcrowding of large hospitals, the lack of interest in community hospitals and the cumbersome procedures for patients’ treatment are all caused by the poor medical information, the polarization of medical resources and the incomplete medical supervision mechanism. These problems have become important factors affecting the harmonious development of society.

It is reported that China’s current medical and health care accounts for about P5% of GDP. Compared with 17% in the United States, China’s medical consumption level is still in the primary stage. With the continuous development of economy, China’s per capita disposable income and health concept will continue to improve, and medical and health consumption will usher in a long-term steady development stage. With the aging, the strengthening of the health awareness of the whole people, the updating and development of medical technology, and the deepening reform of the medical and health system, the hospital medical cause has ushered in a good opportunity for rapid development.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, by the end of 2019, there were 1.014 million medical and health institutions in China, including 34000 hospitals, 12000 public hospitals and 22000 private hospitals; There are 960000 primary medical and health institutions, including 36000 township health centers, 35000 community health service centers (stations), 267000 outpatient departments (institutes) and 621000 village clinics; There are 17000 professional public health institutions, including 3456 centers for disease prevention and control and 3106 health supervision institutions (centers). At the end of the year, there were 10.1 million health technicians, including 3.82 million licensed doctors and assistant licensed doctors, and 4.43 million registered nurses. There are 8.92 million beds in medical and health institutions, including 6.97 million in hospitals and 1.38 million in township hospitals. In the whole year, 8.52 billion people were diagnosed and treated, and 270Million people were discharged.

According to the Research Report “Research Report on market depth analysis and development strategy of medical and pharmaceutical industry in 2020-2025” of China Research Institute of industry

Development of China’s medical industry in 2020

1、 Development trend of China’s medical industry

The demand of the medical industry is rising steadily

The upgrading of medical consumption and the aging of the population stimulate the demand of the industry. At present, China’s medical and health care accounts for about P5% of GDP. Compared with 17% in the United States, China’s medical consumption level is still in the primary stage. With the continuous development of economy, China’s per capita disposable income and health concept will continue to improve, and medical and health consumption will usher in a long-term steady development stage. In addition, the prevalence of chronic diseases in China is rising, and the aging population will continue to promote the consumption of medical services. From 2016 to now, the inspection and operation expenses of public hospitals in China continue to be faster than the drug expenses, and the industry demand is growing.

Chart: China’s medical and health expenses (unit: 100 million yuan)

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: in recent years, the growth rate of examination and operation expenses in public hospitals has continued to be faster than that of drugs

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

There is still much room for the development of China’s medical market

Over the past decade, the average annual growth rate of per capita medical and health expenditure of Chinese residents has exceeded 14%; The proportion of health expenditure in GDP has increased year by year, reaching 6.39% in 2018, but there is still a big gap compared with developed countries (accounting for more than 10%). With the growth of people’s economic income, the intensification of aging, the strengthening of people’s health awareness, the updating and development of medical technology, and the deepening reform of the medical and health system, the hospital medical cause has ushered in a good opportunity for rapid development.

Chart: rapid growth of per capita health expenditure in China

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: proportion of China’s health expenditure in GDP (%)

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

China’s medical demand has been growing

In 2018, the total number of diagnosis and treatment in China was 8.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; The number of hospital diagnosis and treatment reached 3.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The demand for medical services in China has been growing. The growth in demand mainly comes from the aging of the population, the rise in the prevalence of the population (the improvement of health care awareness) and the improvement of medical insurance coverage.

Chart: Statistics of diagnosis and treatment person times in China over the years

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

The supply of medical services in China is dominated by public hospitals and tertiary hospitals

According to the data of 2018, the number of public hospitals accounted for 36.45%, while the number of beds accounted for 73.66%; The number of tertiary hospitals accounted for only 7.7%, while the number of beds accounted for 39.37%. The supply side of medical services in China is dominated by public hospitals and tertiary hospitals. At present, the overall utilization rate of hospital beds in China has exceeded 84%, among which the utilization rate of hospital beds in tertiary hospitals, which undertake the most important medical tasks, is as high as 97.5%. The average doctor undertakes 7.0 diagnosis and treatment times per day, which basically belongs to the state of full load or even overload operation. At the same time, China has 18 doctors and 23 nurses per 10000 people, which is far lower than that of developed countries such as Germany and Australia.

Chart: National Medical and health institutions and number of beds

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: utilization rate of hospital beds in China (%)

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: average daily diagnosis and treatment person times undertaken by doctors

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: number of physicians per 10000 population in different countries of the world

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: number of nurses and midwives per 10000 population in different countries of the world

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

The medical insurance payment structure is optimized, and the medical service industry is expected to benefit in depth. Since december2018, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing and other places have issued policies requiring public hospitals to completely cancel the consumables mark up and synchronously adjust the price of medical services to compensate. The cost of pathological diagnosis projects has generally increased.

Chart: adjustment details of some items of medical services in Shenzhen in December, 2018

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Data source: public data collation

In 2019, the industry support policies were intensively issued, and the private specialized field flourished. In recent 10 years, the compound growth rate of income of specialized hospitals in China has reached 19%, significantly higher than that of public hospitals. In addition, in 2019, the National Health Commission, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments continued to issue policies to encourage social hospitals and deepen the reform of medical service supply. We judged that private specialized courses with high barriers and expansiveness, such as ophthalmology, physical examination and assisted reproduction, are expected to benefit in depth.

Chart: comparison of income CAGR of various specialized hospitals from 2008 to 2018

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Source: prepared by China Research Institute of Puhua industry

Chart: accelerating the introduction of medical service incentive policies in 2019

Analysis on the current situation, trend and Prospect of medical industry development in 2020

Editor in charge: CC

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