After a year of continuous decline, the sales of domestic new energy vehicles finally hit the bottom and rebounded. On August 11, China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as “China Automobile Association”) released data showing that the production and sales volume of domestic new energy vehicle market showed double-digit growth in July this year. This means that the new energy sector, which has lagged behind in the recovery of the auto market since this year, has finally returned.

“This is the first time that the sales of new energy vehicles have recovered this year.” Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Association, told the Beijing Business Daily that the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles this year is expected to be 1.1 million. In fact, behind the China Automobile Association’s optimistic estimation of the new energy vehicle market, the engine driving the growth of sales is not only the consumption release brought by the policy dividend, but also the “point race” of auto enterprises forced by the double point policy.

Monthly sales of 2 million vehicles

The continuous improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation and the release of consumer demand are accelerating the recovery of the domestic car market. According to the data, in July this year, the domestic automobile production and sales were 2201000 and 2112000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9% and 16.4%. The overall production and sales stood at the level of 2 million vehicles again. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.729 million and 1.665 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.2% and 8.5%. Meanwhile, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 472000 and 447000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 70.3% and 59.4%, continuing the high sales momentum this year.

It is noteworthy that the sales of new energy vehicles that had “fallen behind” also rebounded in July. Data show that in July this year, the output of new energy vehicles was 100000, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%; The sales volume reached 98000, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. Among them, as a major contributor to sales, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 89000 in July this year, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. In the new energy passenger vehicle sector, the sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 70000, a year-on-year increase of 38.1%, and the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 19000, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.

The relevant person in charge of China Automobile Association said: “the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles are increasing, of which the growth rate of pure electric vehicles is more obvious. At present, the new energy vehicle market is dominated by private purchase, so the growth of new energy passenger vehicles is more obvious.”

Meanwhile, in the first seven months of this year, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 496000 and 486000, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% and 32.8% respectively. Although the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first seven months still fell by 30%, the China Automobile Association said that due to the growth of production and sales in July, the decline continued to narrow compared with the first half of the year.

Government and enterprises work together to break the ice

In fact, the recovery of new energy vehicle market is inseparable from policy support and strategic adjustment of vehicle enterprises.

Xu Haidong told the Beijing Business Daily that from the decline of subsidies to the first half of this year, the sales of domestic new energy vehicles continued to decline, prompting enterprises to start strategic adjustment, including the rural activities of new energy vehicles launched this year. While laying out the high-end market, enterprises also began to pay attention to the rural market.

It is understood that on July 15 this year, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three ministries jointly issued the notice on carrying out rural activities of new energy vehicles. From July to December this year, many rural activities will be organized in many places. At the just concluded Qingdao station, more than 40 new energy vehicles from more than 20 auto companies participated in the exhibition, mainly small and micro pure electric vehicles. “With the new energy going to the countryside, it will drive the market sales of small pure electric vehicles.” Xu Haidong said that with the continuous adjustment of enterprise strategy to adapt to market changes, the new energy vehicle market will maintain stable growth in the next few months.

In addition to the adjustment of strategic layout by car companies, the release of policy dividends also boosted the sales growth of new energy vehicles. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, at least seven cities in China introduced subsidy policies for new energy vehicles. Among them, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shanghai and other cities have given car purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles, with a comprehensive subsidy of up to 10000 yuan. While stimulating the consumption of new energy vehicles through “real gold and silver”, the index increment of purchase restriction cities has also become one of the ways to promote the large volume of new energy vehicles. In August this year, Beijing will issue 20000 new energy passenger car licenses for “car free families” to encourage car free families to buy new energy vehicles.

However, the relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Association also believes that in addition to the joint efforts of government and enterprises, the low base caused by the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies in July last year has also become one of the factors for the positive sales in July this year. Data show that in July last year, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were only 84000 and 80000, down 6.9% and 4.7% respectively year-on-year.

In addition, since April this year, China Automobile Association has included Tesla, Weima, United, ideal and other new car making forces into the statistical scope, which also has a certain impact on the production and sales data. According to the data, Tesla sold 11000 vehicles in China in July this year, and the cumulative sales in the first seven months were 61300 vehicles. The China Automobile Association expects that Tesla will contribute to the sales of 100000 new energy vehicles in the domestic new energy vehicle market this year.

Pressure bearing double integral red line

It is worth mentioning that the warming signal released in July this year also makes the China Automobile Association full of confidence in this year’s new energy vehicle market. Xu Haidong predicts that the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicle market will reach 1 million this year. “If the sales volume of Tesla is included, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 1.1 million this year.” He said.

According to the sales forecast given by China Automobile Association, it means that the sales target of 600000 domestic new energy vehicles will be achieved in the third and fourth quarters of this year. In the view of insiders, the seemingly too high goal is not impossible. At present, in addition to policy support and strategic adjustment of automobile enterprises, the double point policy is also forcing automobile enterprises to speed up the layout of new energy models and promote the achievement of new energy production and marketing objectives.

According to the requirements of the double score policy, enterprises selling passenger cars in China (including imported passenger car enterprises) shall assess the average fuel consumption score and new energy vehicle score of the enterprise. Only when the sum of the two scores is greater than zero can they meet the standard. If there is a negative score, measures shall be taken to offset it to zero or adjust the production and import plan; If it cannot be offset to zero, the relevant auto enterprises may not be able to sell new products.

In fact, in order to cope with the double integral pressure brought by the sales gap in the first half of this year, all new energy vehicle enterprises have opened the rush loading mode. Data show that in July this year, the domestic power battery loading volume was 5.0gwh, an increase of 6.8% month on month. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 3.3gwh, a year-on-year increase of 57.1%. “Affected by the sudden epidemic, the sales volume of most auto enterprises in the first half of this year did not meet expectations. In order to achieve the double score target of this year, auto enterprises began to catch up with the task volume, which will also promote the growth of new energy vehicle production in the next few months of this year. The rise of installed capacity also reflects the urgency of auto enterprises.” Yan Jinghui, an expert in the automotive industry, said.

It is noteworthy that in the decision on Amending the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger vehicle enterprises issued in June this year, the proportion of new energy vehicle points is required to increase from 8%, 10% and 12% in 2018-2020 to 14%, 16% and 18% in 2021-2023. This means that in the future, car enterprises will cross the “double points” to reach the benchmark, and the integral proportion of new energy vehicles needs to be increased accordingly. Industry insiders believe that after the implementation of the new double score policy next year, it will further curb the decline in the output of new energy vehicles caused by the decline of subsidies.

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