The mask is out of stock, making the mask production line hot. The shortage of medical personnel makes the drug delivery robot popular. The station monitoring makes the automatic temperature measuring robot become a net red. The distribution of logistics robots in the streets of Wuhan…… the infection of pneumonia by New Coronavirus has brought unexpected new opportunities to the robot and the intelligent manufacturing industry.

However, at present, China’s robot industry is still in the “Climbing” of capacity recovery ” Moreover, affected by the delay of customer orders, the output value of the domestic robot industry will decline in 2020. Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of senior engineering consulting, said in an interview with the first financial reporter on March 4, “in the long run, the opportunities brought by the epidemic to intelligent manufacturing outweigh the difficulties. ”

90% of robot enterprises have returned to work

According to the survey conducted by senior engineering consulting on more than 60 upstream and downstream enterprises in the robot industry in China, by the end of February this year, 90% of the enterprises had resumed work and some of them had resumed work, and the enterprises that failed to resume work were mainly located in Hubei, Beijing and Tianjin. Although 90% of the enterprises have resumed work, the current capacity recovery is about 60% ~ 70%.

Zhang Xiaofei explained that, first of all, the enterprises at the downstream client have not fully returned to work. As a system integrator for the transformation of the automatic production line, they go to the site to work, so the robot body has been shipped, but very few have been installed and debugged on the site. Unable to receive orders and deliver goods, the robot body production enterprises do not want to overstock inventory. Therefore, although they return to work, they mainly do product planning and technology research and development internally, and do some online customer service maintenance at the same time.

The second is personnel. The robot industry now mainly completes the existing orders, but some employees have not arrived due to transportation control. The lack of staff in a key post will affect the release of production capacity, especially for some upstream small parts suppliers. The third is the shortage of parts. The production capacity of parts and components is restored by about 30%, the production capacity of robot body is restored by about 60%, and the business recovery of system integrator is only 20% ~ 30%. “Therefore, the recovery of production capacity in the domestic robot industry is now showing signs ‘ Low at both ends and high in the middle ’ The state of. ” Zhang Xiaofei said.

In terms of upstream parts supply, Zhang Xiaofei said that the supply of robot core components such as reducer, controller and server is good, mainly produced by large enterprises. On the contrary, non-standard products and other non-core parts outsourced by each other are difficult to match, because they are mainly produced by small enterprises, which encounter more problems such as shortage of personnel and more difficult to return to work.

The resumption progress of foreign-funded enterprises is slower than that of local enterprises, because some foreign-funded enterprises return to work late and mainly work online in Beijing and Tianjin where isolation measures are strict. Robot enterprises in Shandong, Hunan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shanghai have resumed work at a rate of 90%. Zhang Xiaofei predicted that the domestic robot industry is expected to return to work completely in late April this year.

Due to the confiscation of some project receivables at the end of last year, robot enterprises are generally worried that the factories serving customers will be closed and the receivables will not be collected. At the same time, orders from all downstream customers were delayed. Therefore, the production expansion plans of many robot enterprises have been suspended, while the upstream parts enterprises only make some standard products, and do not dare to do non-standard products for the time being.

Under the general cautious attitude of the industry, some enterprises believe that future opportunities outweigh challenges, while many small and medium-sized enterprises are pessimistic. Zhang Xiaofei said that if some small and medium-sized enterprises fully return to work in May and get orders from June to July, they will have difficulty in survival due to lack of funds in the next few months. In contrast, large enterprises are more optimistic. They have financial support and can take this opportunity to find better talents.

“Crack survival” ” Will shrink output

The rising price of raw materials is a challenge that the robot industry has to face. Zhang Xiaofei expects that upstream and midstream enterprises will be particularly difficult. If the system integrator does not do the project, the personnel can be reduced; Robot body manufacturing enterprises are under the greatest pressure. After workers are in place, they need to pay wages, but the order is delayed, the goods cannot be delivered, and the price of raw materials increases at the same time.

“The first half of the year is difficult. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic under control, the demand for domestic automation transformation is expected to increase. However, even if the order comes, the collection may be delayed until next year. ” According to Zhang Xiaofei’s analysis, the orders of distribution robots and restaurant and hotel service robots will show explosive growth, and the demand related to epidemic prevention and control such as cooperative robots and automatic temperature measuring robots will also increase rapidly. However, the output value of such products accounts for a low proportion. Therefore, it is expected that the output value of the domestic robot industry will decline by about 15% ~ 20% year-on-year in 2020.

Under the epidemic, many robot manufacturers and integrators have switched to mask machines and production lines. However, Zhang Xiaofei revealed that at present, there are few successful shipments and debugging. An ordinary automatic mask production line ranges from 200000 to 400000. If you want to produce fast and spot, the price has risen to 1.2 million yuan in cash, and you may not be able to deliver it immediately. In the process of changing production, some parts can’t be in place at once, and it also takes a long time for the machine commissioning to reach the design capacity. It is estimated that the shipment of mask machine and production line will be relatively smooth in April.

More than 30% of the robot enterprises surveyed believe that the industry will fluctuate in the short term affected by the epidemic. Senior engineering consulting predicts that the domestic robot market will decline sharply in the first half of this year; In the second half of the year, some enterprises producing standard products can recover the time by working overtime, but it is difficult for project-based enterprises with long construction period to “recover” ”, Project collection may be postponed until next year.

“Large robot ontology enterprises can recover part of their output. ” Zhang Xiaofei said that from the perspective of marketing figures, it will catch up with last year, but due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the payment of overtime and other expenses for employees, the profit will still be reduced. Therefore, the industry output value will decline in 2020.

For suggestions to enterprises, Zhang Xiaofei said that R & D enterprises can focus on improving product performance at this time; Production enterprises can seize important customers and provide special services. Large enterprises producing robot ontology should not expand production, but should enhance application, especially close to the front end of major projects invested by the state. “This is a good opportunity for local enterprises to compete with foreign-funded enterprises ”; System integrators need to serve existing customers well, complete and collect money as soon as possible, ensure safe operation, and strengthen cooperation with local robot manufacturers.

In the past, most high-quality system integrators cooperated with foreign brands. This year, foreign-funded enterprises focus on ensuring profits, while local robot manufacturers focus on restoring production capacity, making profits and supporting each other with system integrators. Zhang Xiaofei predicts that the localization rate of China’s robot market will increase faster than in previous years due to the epidemic in 2020. The localization rate reached 30% last year and will increase by 10% ~ 15% this year.

Focus on four industry opportunities this year

Under the epidemic situation, there are already “dangerous” ”, There are also “machines” ”。 For the robot industry, it will bring impact in the short term and good in the long term. Senior engineer consulting believes that China’s robot industry can focus on new opportunities in 3C digital, automobile, new energy, medicine and food industries this year.

Zhang Xiaofei said that in the 3C digital field, 5g will trigger a new round of product competition this year, and apple, Huawei and Xiaomi will launch new products. In order to stabilize supply, they will support their own supply chain system and promote automatic production. In the first half of the year, the demand for consumer electronic products was restrained due to the epidemic, and the market will rebound in the second half of the year. Therefore, the improvement of production capacity in the second half of the year will accelerate the automation transformation.

In the automotive sector, with policy support for the new energy vehicle industry this year, the sales of traditional vehicles will decline. In the supply chain, automotive electronic products need to be updated. Automobile factories also need to convert from traditional production lines to new production lines and carry out automation transformation. Therefore, the demand for automatic production and intelligent manufacturing of auto parts and new energy vehicles will increase this year.

The field of new energy involves photovoltaic, lithium battery and energy storage products. This year, the investment in photovoltaic continues to grow, the demand at home and abroad is increasing, and the products are more standardized, so the automatic transformation of production is an inevitable trend. In terms of new energy vehicle batteries, foreign companies such as Samsung, LG, SK and Panasonic have expanded their production in China. Leading enterprises such as Ningde times continue to expand their production in China, driving the demand for automation and robots.

In the field of medicine and food, the shortage and best-selling of medical devices, masks and disinfectants enable the state to strengthen the strategic reserve of epidemic prevention products. Many enterprises quickly enter relevant production fields, and there is a strong demand for manufacturing equipment and production lines in this regard. At the same time, bagged food sold well this year, and there were greater market opportunities for production line, back-end packaging and warehousing logistics.

“This year, the demand of new energy industry will increase by 20%; the demand of food and medical industry will increase by 30% ~ 50%; the demand of 3C industry declined last year and will rebound and increase by 10% this year to reverse the decline; the demand growth of automobile and parts industry is not necessarily too much. ” Zhang Xiaofei said.

In addition to the above four industry opportunities, the robot industry will accelerate the reshuffle this year. In Zhang Xiaofei’s view, the industry concentration of these industries with growth opportunities this year will increase, and the strong will be strong. This will also promote the concentration of robot and intelligent manufacturing industries. Many small and medium-sized robot enterprises serving the traditional manufacturing industry will stand the test of survival due to the poor business performance of downstream customers. “In the robot industry, the sales revenue of most enterprises is expected to decline this year, the revenue of a few enterprises will rise, and the overall industry output value will still shrink. ”

In any case, after this epidemic, it has become an industry consensus that fewer people, unmanned and intelligent have become the development direction of made in China, which is good for the intelligent manufacturing industry in the long run. For example, Zhang Xiaofei said that the lack of workers in one station will affect the operation of the whole production line, so cooperative robots that can be flexibly deployed to different positions and have high cost performance will be very popular. “The epidemic brings more opportunities than difficulties to intelligent manufacturing, not only the robot itself, but also the transformation and upgrading of automation, which is related to the difficulty of employment. ”

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