Recently, the Radio Management Institute of China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute released the white paper on 5g development prospects in 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the white paper).

The white paper points out that in 2021, China’s 5g network construction and industrial scale will further grow, and the growth rate will exceed that of 2020. The four major operators will continue to lay out 5g scale networking and jointly explore 5g convergence applications. 5g convergence application will benefit c/b/g multi-end users and the market, and 5g private network construction in the field of industrial Internet will take the lead. However, at the same time, there are still many problems in the development of 5g applications in China, such as the challenges faced by various new 5g integrated applications, the unclear business profit model of 5g integrated applications, and the shortcomings of F5G standards and certification mechanisms. Opportunities and challenges coexist.

5g construction is moderately ahead of schedule, and a hundred flowers bloom with integrated application

The white paper points out that 5g construction will remain moderately ahead of schedule in 2021. The industry generally believes that moderately advanced construction conforms to the general characteristics of public infrastructure, especially in combination with the technological development law of 2G, 3G and 4G mobile communications, which has achieved the purpose of supporting the rapid prototyping of the industry. In 2021, the four major telecom operators will continue to increase 5g network investment, which is expected to be 1.5 to 2 times that of 2020. In addition, the state and local governments have strongly supported the construction of 5g infrastructure. Some provinces and cities have made clear the 5g construction plan for 2020-2022. The construction of 5g base stations will reach a climax in 2022 and maintain a steady trend in 2021.

With the further large-scale deployment of 5g new infrastructure, 5g business will gradually extend to various vertical industries. 5g+ integrated application scenarios of various industries will also be fully opened, and the integrated application of vertical industries will present a spectacular scene of letting a hundred flowers bloom.

In 2021, 5g will bring more extreme experience to C-end users in the fields of ultra-high definition video live broadcast, vr/ar, etc., so as to stimulate users to increase consumption, relevant enterprises will make profits, and the penetration scale of relevant integrated applications will be doubled. At the same time, the industrial Internet, the Internet of vehicles and other b-end 5g integrated application scenarios represented by intelligent perception of the Internet of things, as well as the g-end 5g integrated application scenarios such as smart city, smart water and smart power grid, have two huge customer groups of enterprises and governments. It is estimated that in 2021, the scale of b-end and g-end integrated applications will increase by more than 200% on average, with the most significant aspects such as industrial Internet, Internet of vehicles and government digital governance.

In addition, according to the requirements of the notice on promoting the accelerated development of the industrial Internet and the notice on promoting the accelerated development of 5g and other documents, “it is necessary to explore the construction of a private network based on the 5g industry dedicated spectrum, so as to promote the integration and innovation of the industrial Internet in a broader, deeper and higher level”. The construction of a 5g private network oriented to the field of industrial Internet has become the only way for China’s industrial digital transformation. It can be predicted that the construction of 5g private network in the industrial Internet field will be further accelerated in 2021.

The investment in base station construction is huge, and the business model is not clear

On the one hand, it is the operators’ great investment and the bright vision of industrial application; on the other hand, it is the naked problem of “money”. Large investment, long cycle and unclear business model have become the “stumbling blocks” that hinder the development of 5g.

Relevant calculations show that, in order to achieve the desired response speed, the number of 5g base stations will be at least twice that of 4G, the cost of 5g base stations will also be more than twice that of 4G base stations, and the power consumption will be three times that of 4G base stations. From the Perspective of base station construction alone, 5g investment is about 1.5 times that of 4G, and the overall investment scale across the country will reach 1.2 trillion, with an investment cycle of more than 8 years. The huge investment has put great pressure on the 5g construction of operators.

In terms of integrated application innovation of vertical industries, the previous generations of mobile communication systems mainly meet the needs of “people” in communication, Internet access, social networking, etc. operators rarely have in-depth exchanges with other vertical industries, and cannot accurately know the needs of each vertical industry. However, the demands of various vertical industries vary greatly, making it difficult to copy the successful experience of the era of consumer Internet. In addition, many vertical industries do not see the application value of 5g in their industries, and the business model in the 5g era is not clear, which requires operators to explore and explore with the vertical industries.

In addition, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly issued a document to bring fixed broadband (F5G) into the new infrastructure. 5g will go hand in hand with home WLAN to accelerate the domestic information industry into the Gigabit era. In terms of F5G standardization, IEEE has standardized 802.11 series wireless technologies, while Wi Fi alliance has conducted interworking authentication for corresponding technologies. With the increasing variety of services carried by f5g/wlan, user experience is becoming more and more important. For this reason, the broadband alliance has started to standardize the network performance of f5g/wlan since 2019. However, the corresponding performance certification of f5g/wlan is still vacant.

In order to solve the above problems, the white paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, strengthen the coordination of 5g key vertical industry application policies; second, coordinate and speed up the deployment of 5g network construction; third, explore a clear 5g integrated application business model; fourth, seize the opportunity to improve the F5G oriented standard industrial organization.

The white paper emphasizes that China is a very important promoter in the global 5g development, leading the global 5g to maturity in terms of standard setting, spectrum allocation, network construction, application innovation and industrial ecological construction.

Responsible editor: GT

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