In the past year, the global core shortage anxiety has evolved from key industries such as automobiles and electronic consumption into a “big flood” covering the upstream and downstream industry chains and affecting consumers around the world.

For areas that rely heavily on chips, 2021 will be a year of almost “no top” for supply cuts. The auto industry has seen production cuts, shut down some factories, and reduced shipments. Smartphone manufacturers are also stuck in a shortage of chips, and both product development and shipment speed have been affected.

As the foundry production capacity focuses on high-value, advanced process chips, the pressure of lack of cores is further transmitted to other industries.

Goldman Sachs research shows that as many as 169 industries around the world have been hit to some extent by chip shortages, including everything from steel products and concrete production to air-conditioning manufacturing and beer production. Some small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises in Shenzhen and Dongguan, such as TWS headset manufacturers and Bluetooth interconnection manufacturers, cannot withstand the pressure of chip shortages or skyrocketing prices, and many close down.

In 2021, the global core shortage has become a monstrous flood, and it will strike at a visible speed, affecting the entire society and everyone’s life.

As far as the country is concerned, the chaos caused by the lack of cores needs to be regulated.

Chips that are rare and expensive are beginning to attract the attention of criminals. In the United States, on October 29, 2021, Nvidia partner EVGA claimed that a shipment of EVGA GeForce RTX30 series graphics cards was stolen en route from San Francisco to a distribution center in Southern California. As early as August 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation of China announced that it would file an investigation into auto chip dealers suspected of price gouging, and investigate and punish illegal acts such as hoarding, price gouging, and collusion to raise prices.

At the same time, the prolonged economic recovery and changes in the situation due to the lack of cores also urgently require the participation and reform of national forces. For example, the South Korean semiconductor industry, which once rose due to the support of the United States, also has divergent interests. The “Korea Times” believes that South Korean chip companies are actually facing the “coercion” of the U.S. “Defense Production Act”; China’s “localized substitution” of chips will start slowly with the acceleration of new infrastructure and digital economy in 2021.

For individuals, chips are no longer just political topics and discussions such as “discontinued supply” and “entity list”. As the ultimate bearer of costs and the end user of chips, the impact of global chip shortages in 2021 will begin to really affect us. daily life.

Some consumers are unable to mention the car because the car manufacturer cannot produce it, and some have to accept the operation of reducing the distribution; the shipping speed of new mobile phones and the range of marketing discounts are much smaller, which reduces the mobile phone consumers’ interest. Desire to change phones; while the production capacity of MCU, power management chips, Wi-Fi chips, etc. has been squeezed, which has also led to more electronic functional products rising in price, and the cost increase in the chip industry chain has been transmitted to end consumers.

You may ask, since the core shortage has been going on for more than a year, has the world not found a solution until now?

Treating the core is like treating water.

The chip semiconductor industry, which has a strong periodicity, is also full of various entanglements and trade-offs just like the management of floods.

Too much water will lead to flooding, and too little water will lead to drought. In the chip field, production capacity often needs to be deployed in advance by foundries. Counter-cyclical construction means that there are many uncertain factors.

In 2021, fabs around the world are operating at almost full capacity. However, as TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin said, there are a large number of repeated orders, “28 nanometers seem to be in short supply now, but in fact global production capacity is still greater than demand.” If we blindly build new factories to expand production capacity, the production line will not be saturated in the future.

The International Data Corporation (IDC) believes that the chip supply will achieve a supply balance in mid-2022, and by 2023, there may be excess chip capacity, that is, oversupply.

Difficulties and obstacles, and the phenomenon of hurdles. The proposition of global lack of core, just like the “Han” (kǎn) hexagram, is full of low-lying dilemmas, hidden dangers, and layers of dangers.

The time of 2021 alone may not be enough to make earth-shaking changes in the world semiconductor structure, but what methods and ideas China needs to use to build bridges and build roads and resolve the chip crisis, 2021 has actually given us enough inspiration.

Year of the Flood: How big is the impact of missing cores?

In the Bible, there is a flood to destroy the world. In ancient China, Yu Yu controlled the flood. The flood is one of the large-scale disasters that human beings have long feared. In 2021, the “global chip shortage” that occurred in the digital world will engulf one industry after another like a flood, turning the whole world into a large anxiety scene. Once glamorous companies are under the threat of chip shortages and price increases into a brutal fight.

Today, the chip shortage has affected several industries. Among them, the auto industry, whose chip cost accounts for 4.7% of the industry’s GDP, bears the brunt.

The production of modern cars involves dozens of microcontrollers, and the number of electronic components and chips in the entire vehicle is very high. Jiang Jian, President of Bosch China, once shared that the current traditional internal combustion engine vehicles use about 100 to 200 semiconductor chips, and the chips used in new energy vehicles increase by 5 times compared with traditional fuel vehicles. And as long as one chip is out of supply, the vehicle cannot be manufactured.

Since the beginning of this year, many multinational auto giants such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Ford, and Honda, as well as new car-making forces such as Weilai and Ideal, have been affected by the shortage of chips, resulting in suspension of production, reduction of distribution, and difficulty in picking up cars. An auto executive said on Weibo: “The show cars in the showroom are almost sold out, so we can only put models.”

According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), in July and August this year, European new car registrations fell by 24% and 18% year-on-year, respectively, which was the largest two-month decline since the end of the euro zone economic crisis in 2013. . Auto sales in China in 2021 are also negative due to lower production.

Another particularly nervous, is the consumer electronics industry.

The sales of chips used in smartphones accounted for 26%, ranking first in the field of chip applications. With the popularization of 5G, the dependence of mobile phone performance on advanced manufacturing processes, and the development trend of SoC chips, the number of chips required and the process accuracy have increased, all of which have challenged the limited production capacity and directly affected smartphone manufacturers.

According to Digitimes, Apple planned to purchase 5G baseband chips from Qualcomm and Samsung, but was rejected by both. Samsung responded that the supply was insufficient.










































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